BTC ... here you can choose your path ... for me the black one!

업데이트됨

Hello team, been a while. Although I haven't posted in some time, I have been actively looking at charts.

OK, we are at an interesting juncture ... so I thought I'd post my grand chart to get your opinions.

Which color line are you counting on ... green, red or black?

It feels like we are on green, especially after that green candle today, you have to think that bull euphoria is setting in.
But unless we crack 11500 to 11800, I'm afraid there will be profit taking, and then the question is how much profit taking (ie the black line or the red line).

The red line assumes we are still in a big ABC correction that is still in play. Basically 20k to 3k was wave A, 3k to 13.7 was B, and now we are creating C ... down to around 2k (maybe even lower, some calling for 1k).

Personally, it's hard to believe that ... but we all know how whales can surprise us in this market. And some traders that I respect are convinced it will happen. So I will not discard this possibility.

I think the black line is the most realistic. It basically says since we hit 20k, we are forming a big ABCDE triangle wave ... this ends in early May, precisely when BTC is expected to half ... and you know what that means. So it makes sense that people that don't believe will be anxious to profit take at the first real sign of resistance (11500), but at the same time, I think there is enough people that believe BTC will print a new ATH after the halving ... so they won't give up BTC that easy ... so we sideways (which is a triangle wave ... the market can't decide really), until we get to the halving, and then we take off.

I'd love to hear what you guys and girls think.

Remember, only a fool sees one possibility.

Do not use for investment, trading, financial decisions. For educational purposes only.

노트

Here's an adjustment ... I adjusted the lower line of the triangle ... I actually made a mistake the first time ... not connecting points A and C. This is more accurate.

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I still think the black line is in play to around 7800 to 8000.

This is what I expect as the next movements. Obviously I'm not in control, so no guarantees here, but this is what I'm playing. Important point here is weak drop to maybe 8300 ... then up to maybe 9700, so alts could see a good ride, before it turns red again. Let's see.

노트

Here's the above forecast pattern, just cleaned up a bit:

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Adjustment ... I still think this is wave 4, it's still in the pivot zone (and below it) ... if it breaks out, it means the impulse down is over ... and we can be going to 9500 - 97xx. Wave 4 and wave 5 elliot waves have proven to be difficult to pinpoint ... not recommended to trade these waves. Anyhow this is what I think:

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This wave 5 corrected deeper and faster than I thought ... here's my adjusted wave plots ... counting sub waves ... I think (I hesitate to say this), the correction is over or soon over ... but this CORONA Virus thing ... Jeez, it's unpredictable to say what is going to happen ...

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What a disaster ... CORONAVIRUS obviously being factored in now. I've given up on the triangle wave. This orange line is the only thing in the way of revisiting 3k to 4k territory.