Local low, and a short-term retracement in minor B is expected

Bitcoin has extended lower, now even past the 200% Fibonacci extension of its initial (a)-(b) sequence. Ironically, this has sparked a wave of commentary on CNBC, with several analysts asserting that Bitcoin’s breakdown signals a shift in their outlook for the U.S. economy.

Being an analyst is inherently difficult and occasionally humbling…but the notion that Bitcoin meaningfully reflects domestic economic strength or weakness is, frankly, misguided. At best, Bitcoin can serve as a barometer of risk appetite, which is a sentiment gauge, not an economic indicator. The BTC decline may suggest risk-taking has peaked, but it says nothing conclusive about underlying economic fundamentals…and whatever they may be.

From a structural standpoint, much like Solana, I continue to expect Bitcoin to reverse higher imminently in a minor B wave, as outlined in the chart above. Notably, for the first time in months, BTC and SOL have begun to align in both behavior and trend structure, something we have been lacking and a development worth watching.