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BTC: looking for a break up

업데이트됨

BTC is approaching to the main resistance and a possible break up over the next days but I'll personally look for another and last rejection at $6950-7050 and eventually 6.1-6.3k area before breaking out on the upside.
but keep in mind if we get below 6k the bearish scenario should play out already.

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rising wedge in the making

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6.9-7k still in play.
Ema 50 on 4h chart acted as good support and it should hold. a break below 6550 would invalidate the target.

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next month will be decisive and I guess cocky bears may have a good lesson
On monthly chart we can see how monthly 20 ema is holding pretty unlike 2014. but if Btc gets rejected at the main resistance again it will have to close above the monthly 20 EMA (it's around $6200) and the next attempt (probably mid-october) to break upwards has to success otherwise bearish scenario should play out.

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pretty well*

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selling pressure weak so far and seems like we have a good buying pressure by looking at chaikin money flow and MFI but we need to see over the next days.
6200/6350 is where it will have to get a bounce.

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another reason why I expect this market to bounce hard before we may get the capitulation.

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by this I'm not saying we'll break up for sure( as it happened in 2014) as well as the down move after 13/14k. better to wait for the break out
for now let's look at what happens when it breaks out. if that occurs on the downside probably we should find the bottom at around (best case scenario) 3.2-2.8k.
if 2.8k is broken then we should look for 1.2-1.8k.
but since more and more ppl are bearish and cocky bears getting more cocky I really expect something like in 2014.
right now maybe someone says the picture is so bearish because we made lower high and we didn't hit the main resistance and this could be a bad signal, well what happened in the descending triangle? (2014).
IMO things will get bearish once 6k is broken.

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no need to update anymore for a while.
take care

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one last update..guess what could happen....

we just need to see the first triangle in lower timeframe because as we know it's much more smaller than the last one but the meaning doesn't change.
we may already break up but I would like to see a strong dump like the previous ones (from 8.5k and 7.4k) to reset RSI level so that we can start this uptrend in a good way. this will probably happen, but as always keep in mind a clear break below 6k would invalidate the bullish scenario I have been talking about since a lot of weeks. btw this "bullish scenario" would be just a return to normal IMO.

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we'll see a decision by 10 october more or less.
if we break I just wanna see a fast rally like December or eve like February from 6k to 11.7k but it should stop in this range 12.7-14.5k.

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ascending triangle should be the perfect set up to break out on the upside but watch out if gets rejected.

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seems like it's happening as I was expecting. this attempt to break upward will be very important

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we are inside this symmetrical triangle like April and still pretty similar to gold structure.

I think we'll break up 2/3days before the apex of this triangle which is on 12oct.
a clear break up is above $6850
If that doesn't happen and we'll go towards 6.2k and/or we'll stop at around 8.5k I'll start thinking we may follow the end of the 2014 bear market or something similar as long as 6.1k holds which is the previous monthly low.

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from my point of view it's more likely to have a return to normal before a new low (first scenario)

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lots of people convinced bottom is in because of "compound fulcrum bottom"
that was the same for the the "H&S bottom" then we saw how the neckline held...

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we may repeat something like in April.

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I forgot to say we are inside a proper bull pennant on daily chart where the volume has to be high during the formation of the flagpole while it has to be low during the consolidation inside the flag.

consolidation range = 6520-6620
target of this pattern is around 7.1k which would allow to break the big triangle upward.

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As mentioned last time, we can see this fractal playing out over the next days then a possible bear trap to around $6365 is to be expect.

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if that plays out, probably lots of bears in disbelief :D

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daily close above $6350 is what we need to keep this compound fulcrum bottom like in April.

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we should see an inverse bart soon

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beartar in disbelief crying manipulation LOL this us what we are gonna see over the next days

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beatard.

let ride your long all the way up to 11.7k at least. pretty sure 13/14k as well

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anyway I still think this huge pump which we'll see could be a huge bull trap.
target descending triangle = 12.5k
target compound fulcrum bottom around 14k
I would start taking profit at 11.7k

there weren't conditions to crash toward 4k from here, we'll see lots of calls which will keep calling for doom and these ppl will buy when it's too late maybe. So IF we see 4k or lower prices this will happen from 12/14k not before.

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daily candle not looking very nice, but as long as 6.8k holds should be good enough.
who longed/bought at 6k or so is fine.

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for those who are worried about tether. tether price dropped hard before the bullrun started last year. of course that doesn't mean we'll see a bullrun again but there's nothing to worry about.
still expect a new Low after 12/14k if this happens not before.
probably just lots of shorters underwater trying to spread FUD.

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volume can confirm the breakout to the upside.

it's still fine despite the fact it went below 6.8k, what really matters is that it doesn't have to go inside the triangle.
we can see when we broke 6k (two times) bears were so weak and this is one of the main reasons why BTC is not bearish (short term at least) and it can actually get this nice uptrend towards 13k which is the fulcrum bottom target.

액티브 트레이드

bounced on the support which was resistance.
hidden bullish div on Chaikin money flow which is telling us selling pressure is weak confirmed by low volumes when the price drops.
not much room to go down given the higher lows on daily macd.
if we break 6.2k that means we'll make a lower low and that would be clearly bearish but I don't see reasons for that to happen. still convinced 12/14k comes first and a new low (if this happens) will come later.

If this weekly candle closes anywhere between $6450-6850 range we'll get an Inverted hammer which would be another bullish sign.
Always on weekly chart we can see a good hidden bullish div as well.
On daily if BTC is able to break $6640 today we'll see a bullish engulfing candle and would be a good buy.
that said a clear upward direction needs to be taken by the end of this month and 12/14k is to be expect by end of this year (could be even earlier given the fact that when BTC performed by almost 100% it took less than 5 weeks.
nothing to add more.

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weekly overview

bullish scenario still in play, even if I didn't expect this dump.
either we follow 2014 bear market or the descending triangle.
a break below 6.1k would invalidate the first scenario while below 6.2k the second one.