Bitcoin Bitfinex Capitulation .786 Fib Last Stand
It has been an amazing day of volatility in crypto and although there may be many that are crying. There is enormous opportunity in all the uncertainty. Let's find out how deep this hole is.
First we have is the hourly analog of Bitcoin Bitfinex and boy does it look ugly. Yesterday we were monitoring the .5 fib level when suddenly price started falling rapidly. This continued overnight breaking the previous lows from May 17th at $7,925 and all the way down to the $7,800 that I was targeting yesterday.
There was a bit of a bounce for a few hours at $7,800, but hardly any volume to support it. The candle at 8 am EST this morning which couldn’t even surpass the previous hour’s high was indicative that this would continue to run lower. Price also couldn’t even test the turquoise 20 hour moving average.
So price was crushed lower, running through stop losses and liquidating positions on big volume all the way down to $7,402, where it has finally bounced off the bottom of this downward sloping pink channel. Price is now taking a breather around the $7,600 level while it decides where to next.
The RSI continues to head lower, but is already is massively oversold zones, at about 16. The MACD is wanting to crossover and curl upward to provide a bit of a relief rally too, but we can see how that failed this morning as well.
I also added a new indicator that I think may be helpful for trading, which is this CCI. The simple gist is that when the brown line crosses down out of the beige area which resides at +/- 100 you buy or sell, depending on how you are playing the market and then when it crosses back through that same threshold you complete the opposite buy/sell action.
It appears to be helpful for many forex traders as well and if you chart the price action just from today on the hourly, you could have made some decent trades on the way down. I have marked them with the blue boxes.
Ok time for the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart. You can see from just two days ago, how price failed at the 50 day moving average. Got above it on Sunday and then was pushed back below it on Monday, after it had acted as support for the previous 12 days.
It’s interesting that price today headed all the way back down to that previous bounce level of $7,402 on April 3rd circled in black. There is a bit of an air pocket there that price usually likes to fill somehow if there is ever a gap up or down in price. Between $7,850 and $7,400 there were only previous wicks with no resistance in between those levels. It looks like we may have a few days to fill in some candles at these levels.
Unfortunately, with where price is at right now, a revisit to the dark blue .786 fib level appears likely at the $7,179. It is also a nice level because there is a nice blue up-trending line from previous lows earlier this year, so if price continues lower to there that may be the true last stand between the bulls and bears for a while. A breakdown from there would probably mean a retest to $4,200, but let’s hope it does not come to that.
To the upside a retest of the .618 dark green fib line at $7,779 could be a possibility, but I will still remain bearish until we get some better volume.
The hidden bearish RSI divergence ended up being very prescient in its indication of things to come, which I have marked again with a blue line on the RSI chart with its higher high and price doing a lower high.
RSI is so close to the oversold level, and ideally if it can hold that purple upward sloping trending there, I believe that would be huge to generate some true bullish momentum.
First we have is the hourly analog of Bitcoin Bitfinex and boy does it look ugly. Yesterday we were monitoring the .5 fib level when suddenly price started falling rapidly. This continued overnight breaking the previous lows from May 17th at $7,925 and all the way down to the $7,800 that I was targeting yesterday.
There was a bit of a bounce for a few hours at $7,800, but hardly any volume to support it. The candle at 8 am EST this morning which couldn’t even surpass the previous hour’s high was indicative that this would continue to run lower. Price also couldn’t even test the turquoise 20 hour moving average.
So price was crushed lower, running through stop losses and liquidating positions on big volume all the way down to $7,402, where it has finally bounced off the bottom of this downward sloping pink channel. Price is now taking a breather around the $7,600 level while it decides where to next.
The RSI continues to head lower, but is already is massively oversold zones, at about 16. The MACD is wanting to crossover and curl upward to provide a bit of a relief rally too, but we can see how that failed this morning as well.
I also added a new indicator that I think may be helpful for trading, which is this CCI. The simple gist is that when the brown line crosses down out of the beige area which resides at +/- 100 you buy or sell, depending on how you are playing the market and then when it crosses back through that same threshold you complete the opposite buy/sell action.
It appears to be helpful for many forex traders as well and if you chart the price action just from today on the hourly, you could have made some decent trades on the way down. I have marked them with the blue boxes.
Ok time for the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart. You can see from just two days ago, how price failed at the 50 day moving average. Got above it on Sunday and then was pushed back below it on Monday, after it had acted as support for the previous 12 days.
It’s interesting that price today headed all the way back down to that previous bounce level of $7,402 on April 3rd circled in black. There is a bit of an air pocket there that price usually likes to fill somehow if there is ever a gap up or down in price. Between $7,850 and $7,400 there were only previous wicks with no resistance in between those levels. It looks like we may have a few days to fill in some candles at these levels.
Unfortunately, with where price is at right now, a revisit to the dark blue .786 fib level appears likely at the $7,179. It is also a nice level because there is a nice blue up-trending line from previous lows earlier this year, so if price continues lower to there that may be the true last stand between the bulls and bears for a while. A breakdown from there would probably mean a retest to $4,200, but let’s hope it does not come to that.
To the upside a retest of the .618 dark green fib line at $7,779 could be a possibility, but I will still remain bearish until we get some better volume.
The hidden bearish RSI divergence ended up being very prescient in its indication of things to come, which I have marked again with a blue line on the RSI chart with its higher high and price doing a lower high.
RSI is so close to the oversold level, and ideally if it can hold that purple upward sloping trending there, I believe that would be huge to generate some true bullish momentum.
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