9/30 Market Surge: SP500, Crypto, and Whale Accumulation

10월 1일

Overview:
The SPY closed strongly today, spurred by dovish remarks from Jerome Powell during a press conference. Powell signaled that the economy is cooling and reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to achieving 2% inflation. As a result, 61% of traders now anticipate a 1 basis point rate cut in November, while 39% expect a 2 basis point cut. The SPY had been gradually sliding earlier in the day, but Powell’s comments fueled a rally, allowing the index to engulf Friday’s red candle. Trading volume for the SPY ETF more than tripled during the press conference, reaching levels similar to Wednesday, September 18, when the recent rate cut was announced. Bullish.

The tech ETF QQQ didn’t manage to engulf Friday’s candle but still saw a solid rally, accompanied by trading volume that was 10x higher than usual.

BlackRock continued its buying spree, acquiring $72.2 million worth of BTC, which is below their usual $118 million purchases. Over the past six days, BlackRock has accumulated nearly half a billion dollars worth of BTC and an additional $100 million of ETH. Is this how whales are dollar-cost averaging into the market?

BTC TA:
W: BTCUSD saw a sharp sell-off originating from Asia early Monday. Despite this, it remains above the Bollinger Band MA at 62.8k. The point of control for the current bull move is at 63k, with key weekly and daily resistance at 64k. BTC must hold within the 63k-64k range to maintain the bullish trend; failing to do so could signal one of the year’s largest bull traps.
D: The recent correction has halted precisely at the point of control, where the most trading activity occurs. However, the RSI remains overbought at 73.4, and the MACD shows bearish histogram divergence. Bearish.
4h: On shorter timeframes, RSI has moved into oversold territory. Additionally, the VWAP oscillator has crossed above the 0 line, signaling short-term bullishness. A rebound to the 64.7k Fibonacci 0.618 level is possible. Bullish in the short term.
1h: Price broke through the weekly and monthly resistance at $64 k but is struggling to maintain this level due to significant selling pressure. Neutral to bearish.

Altcoins Relative to BTC:
Top altcoins have started pumping again after Monday’s correction. Coins like SUI, APT, and FTM posted gains of more than 7% by early Tuesday. These altcoins have proven that the recent correction was not a bull trap and are leading the market in this cycle. Even if BTC remains range-bound, altcoins could continue to pump, interpreting the situation as a non-bear market scenario.

Bull Case:
The bull trap has been avoided, and the market has resumed its uptrend. With additional liquidity expected from future rate cuts, the correction is seen as a temporary pullback. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance increases the likelihood of more liquidity flowing into speculative assets like crypto.

Bear Case:
The market may still be caught in a massive bull trap. Altcoin buyers at these levels could find themselves overexposed if the broader market falters.

Fear and Greed Index:
Currently at 47.89, the index has pulled back from the "Greed" area and is now just below the midpoint of 50, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market.

Prediction:
If BTC fails to reclaim $64 k , sentiment may shift bearish in the near term. Conversely, reclaiming this level could pave the way for further upside, with a first target of 67k.