BTC - Update3 - Up to $84,000 by end of March

2021년 3월 8일

UPDATE 3

Steady as she goes. BTC seems to be on its way along another up leg. The last 3 up legs lasted 5, 4 and 4 weeks respectively. The current up leg already has one up week, so it likely has another 3 or 4 to go, which should take us to $84,000 by the end of March.

Notice that in the last 2 up legs (just before points "C" and "E"), the last 2 weeks of the run were the biggest gainers. This is typical of an up leg, where the first couple of weeks are shorter and the last couple of weeks are taller. The big finish at the end of each up leg is what causes the price to rise well above the 4-week average, which in turn causes it to stall and pull back down a little bit to return to the 4-week average.

This means we should expect some very big gains during the last two weeks of March.

PS... On a weekly chart like this one, the refresh arrow does not update the graph until the next week begins (next Sunday). So if you want to refresh the chart throughout the week, simply click on one of my previous updates (green triangles) and click the refresh arrow from there, which will bring up a new weekly candle updated to the moment.

UPDATE 2

Last week's close below the 4-week moving average (purple line) seems to have marked another bottom (point "F").

Generally, weeks that close below the 4-week MA mark the end of a correction, while weeks that open below the 4-week MA mark the beginning of another up leg. (Just like point "D", and many other similar occasions in the past.)

The last 2 up legs (ending at points "B" and "C") ran for 5 and 4 weeks respectively. We can thus expect this next up leg to run 4 or 5 weeks as well, taking us to $84,000 by the end of March. (See my original post below for a more detailed accounting of this projection.)

Naturally, we may see some red periods over the coming weeks. But these should turn green eventually, as the long-term trend is still very bullish .

UPDATE 1

BTC is starting a new week at a very good place, below the 4-week moving average (purple line). The 4-week moving average gives us a very good indication of what to expect over the near term. Here's why...

Above the 4-week MA: Whenever the price extends high above the 4-week moving average, BTC tends to have a bad week to correct back down to the average. (Notice points "C" and "E".) In these cases, the price had moved up too fast and too high above the previous weeks.

Below the 4-week MA: Whenever the price falls below the 4-week moving average, BTC tends to start a new upward run. (Notice point "D", and now point "F".) In these cases, the price corrected sufficiently to fall back in-line with the previous weeks.

We see this pattern all throughout BTC's history. Too high above the 4-week average, and it tends to correct down. Once below the 4-week average, it tends to run up.

Keep in mind that in a bull phase (like BTC is in now), runs to the up side are longer than corrections to the down side. In a bear phase, the opposite is true, where corrective slides are longer than the runs up. Given how BTC is in the "spike year" of its 4-year cycle, we should expect longer runs that climb higher and higher each time.

In sum: A week that opens below the 4-week average looks good. A week that opens high above the 4-week average looks bad. For now, BTC looks good, very good. We are likely at the start of another growth spurt that should take us to $84,000 by the end of March. (The original post below explains this projection.)

ORIGINAL

Hey, folks.

If we look at the weekly BTC chart using a 4-week moving average (purple line), we notice a very consistent pattern that just might be forecasting a jump to $84,000 by the end of March.

LEG 1: The recent rally started back in October (point "A"), at around $10,000, and rising to around $20,000 (point "B"). Leg 1 took 5 week and ran up about $10,000. BTC then took a break like a mountain climber catching his breath.

LEG 2: In its second leg, BTC rose from around $20,000 to about $40,000 (point "C"). Leg 2 took 4 weeks and ran up about $20,000. BTC then took another break, losing about $10,000 from point "C" to point "D".

LEG 3: For its third leg, BTC rose from a low of $28,000 (point "D") to a high of $58,000 (point "E"). Leg 3 took 4 weeks and ran up about $30,000. BTC has now been taking another break (1 week so far), dropping to a low of about $44,000 (point "F").

Do you notice the pattern? Leg 1 ran up $10,000. Leg 2 ran up $20,000. Leg 3 ran up $30,000. We might speculate that the next leg should run up $40,000, from around $44,000 (point "F") to around $84,000 (point "G").

When might it reach point "G"? Leg 1 lasted 5 weeks. Leg 2 lasted 4 weeks. Leg 3 lasted 4 weeks. We might estimate leg 4 to last 4 or 5 weeks as well, taking us to the "G" point by around the end of March.

Now that would be some "G" spot!