Analyzing Bitcoin Monthly Candle Closes

A lot of notable traders are calling for Bitcoin to drop to 44k or even to around 20.5-21.5k towards an unfilled daily CME chart gap (see daily CME chart below).

Before getting into my thoughts about whether or not we move up or down here, let's remind ourselves of some things:

1.) Bitcoin made its first new ATH back in March 2024, after closing right around the previous Oct 21 ATH in February this year.

2.) Let's also take note of two significant previous monthly ATH candle closes from 2021:

March 21 Monthly Close - 58.8k
October 21 Monthly Close (Previous Monthly ATH - approx 61.3k

Recap of this year
Next, a recap of what has happened since March 24's ATH:

April's monthly candle closed just below that high, but above the March 21 high, losing the Oct 21 level that was broken in the previous month.

Then in May, it reclaimed that Oct 21 high, held it for 2 months, and then lost it again in August with a stronger re-test of the March 21 high, and the strongest wick below it yet... but still closing just above it.

Just after August, the September monthly candle yet again reclaims the Oct 21 high, but is now re-testing that area again this year, also in October again and with 21 days left to go until the monthly close.

So what happens next?

Scenario A - October monthly candle closes above 58.8k, we could still see wicks lower than the one in August, and we could see levels like 44k or even lower prior to close. Remaining above 58.8k still gives Bitcoin a chance to reclaim 61.3k and move up in the months that follow.

Scenario B - October monthly candle closes above 61.3k, with a 2nd reclaim of the Oct 21 ATH, we likely move on up to test or even break this year's ATH.

Scenario C - October monthly candle closes below 58.8k, if November doesn't quickly reclaim that level or 61.3k, we likely see 44k or lower, and may even revisit the unfilled CME gap on the daily chart.

Daily CME Gaps Chart: