BTC → Bitcoin Sell-off at $45,800! Time to Short? Let's Answer.

1월 4일

Bitcoin made it to the measured move target at $45,800 which was followed by a massive 11% sell-off in the course of an hour. This is the second major sell-off at these levels in under a month. Is this the opportune time to short?

How do we trade this? 🤔
We have several data points in favor of a short. We've completed a Measured Move, three legs up in a bull trend, two massive sell-offs (8% and 11%) in under a month at the major resistance level of $46,000 and an RSI under its Moving Average. I also have my Bitcoin Lifetime Analysis which describes in far more detail, why we need a massive pullback before we see new all-time highs:

We need to wait for a 4HR candle to close below its 200EMA or a Daily candle to close below its 30EMA. You could argue its reasonable to short now, but we lack confirmation, so the probability of profit is lower at this stage. I prefer more probability in my trades.


💡 Trade Idea 💡

Short Entry: $42,600
🟥 Stop Loss: $46,900
✅ Take Profit: $38,300
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1


🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑

1. Measured Move Complete!
2. Two Sell-offs near the $45,000 area
3. Three Legs Up in a Bull Channel
4. RSI at 52.00 and below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
5. Wait for Final Sell signal, Short 1:1 Risk/Reward.


💰 Trading Tip 💰
There is over a 60% chance of a measured move after the breakout of a major resistance, normally, a trading range. That means the distance from the trading range resistance, to the top of the breakout, will happen again above the top of the breakout.


⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!


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