Classic Run Up To 12k-13k. Then Look For Reversal? We shall see.

2018년 2월 20일

As I said in my previous charts, Bitcoin was going to rally to about 12k-13k, which is where the 50 day moving average was at during the beginning of the rally. The 50 has come down some and currently the price is above it. The 50 is the mean price and prices always return to the mean.

We also have resistance coming in at the fib, placing it square in the target range. The 50 is leveling out but still with a downward trend bias. The Tom DeMark count (numbers near the candle) is at 7. This is a high number, usually reaching 9 before a change in direction, although it could go a few candles further before reversing.

Stochastic shows us being overbought. MACD will probably angle down on any type of weakness.

Elliot Wave (not shown) also has a target in this range before a reversal down of 5 waves.

My biggest concern is that the 50 is approaching the 200 and could cross. If this happens, there will be more weakness to the downside.

We need to be watchful here. We could reverse down within 2-3 days for a correction, unless a really strong rally reverses the 50 day MA to trend up. But because the last low shook out a lot of new players, the power for a bigger rally is limited.

As I said, we shall see.