When everybody sees the same thing, is that good or bad?

2019년 8월 9일

Generally I'm a contrarian and my philosophy is, "the market likes to disappoint". So who would be more disappointed? The people who want a lower entry point to buy in, or the people who see a bull flag and expect a break out? It's a tough question. From a TA perspective, it's hard to find a more perfect long setup. But when something is too perfect, it can easily let you down. However I think there is a broad sentiment that thinks, "there's no way we can break the recent highs, because that means we test the all time highs... it's a fakeout." Well maybe it isn't. Either way, we're seeing a volatility squeeze, which means a big move is coming very, very soon.

A fakeout to the downside followed by a rally to new highs disappoints the most people, but I'm tentatively betting BTC moves up soon.

Good luck!

2019년 8월 13일

노트

BTC continuing to ride that blue channel trendline that *everybody* is looking at... i get the sense that the longer it does, the more explosive the initial move will be. But i have zero conviction as to whether we see a straight breakout, or a breakdown first and then a breakout after..