BTC triple-combo correction not done yet, low liquidity => crash

We see these days crazy amount of manipulation for bitcoin.

The "volume" appear to be high, but if the real volume were high there wouldn't be this type of price movements. In other words, liquidity in this market is drying up. I suspect most of the volume comprise of wash trades.

The situation is tricky: wash trades can push the price up, but in a market that people are wary of the higher the price the lower the demand. In the mid-/long-term, this is always true. Fomo only works in the short term. Insane price movements scares investors away. Stop losses cannot be used, and fewer investors will be trading.

As a result, whales are likely to distribute around the 8.5k - 9.5k zone. They fully understand that supply is high above 10k & if price were pushed above 10k educated holders may sell. But the price will possibly be kept above 8.5k, which would indicate a continued correction & eventual crash.

In other words, in each round of pumps whales are selling to people who fomo.

When their targets are reached, wash trades will stop & we'll see a crash.

We can see on the weekly chart the comparison. I've made several charts like this before. But market cycles are repeating & share high levels of similarities --> they're worth studying for sure.

노트

check out the 50W & 200D MAs & current levels.

We could see a drop from here to 50D MA (8k) & jump back to 200D (10k) then the real return to the mean

노트

ending diagonal

노트

ending diagonal w/ MAs clearer in 30 min

노트

Somehow I feel like it's just so similar to mid Jan

노트

Could it be the ending diagonal going up the last time (wave e)?

노트

We can see some bearish divergence. I think it's likely to play out as a double top

노트

we can clearly see the difference between these drops & 1-min pumps:

it takes an hour to drop the same amount that would be pumped in 1 minute.

this tells us that the drops are organic & the pumps are fake

노트

first cross on 1h