Bitcoin breaks Resistance plus some Daily stats

2016년 7월 2일

BTCUSD has broken the Daily resistance value of 672 I've been eyeing since the bottom nearly two weeks ago. We had a period of choppy consolidation as was suggested by the daily chart being shocked by the volatility. I expect the retest of the high to go through July. Most probably the move to get through the High Retest zone will be on July 8th, a Friday.

Why July 8th? Stocktwits user heyimsnuffles peaked my curiosity when he posted a comment about a "like clockwork" Friday after-hours pump. I wanted to see if this observation was backed up by evidence so I pulled raw OHLC data from Bitfinex, did a little bit of normalization, and compiled the results on the table above for Weekday statistics.

3 Year data includes price shocks such as MtGox so the volatility is much higher than 1 Year data. Two days stuck out consistently; Friday and Wednesday. Friday historically has the highest probability of being a bullish day in the near term and a slightly higher probability in the long term. The Tuesday long term bullish sentiment seems to have gone away. Wednesday was consistently the most bearish day and also one of the highest in volatility.

So if you want to enter a Long position; best to do it Thursday prior to Friday. See a short setup Wednesday? Take it!