BTCUSD: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

2019년 11월 28일

The chart speaks for itself. The extrapoled price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018. Notably the VPVR is supporting the price target of $3,800, as is the extrapolation, with forecasted price for the block halving in May 2020 above 6K followed by another swift recovery and subsequent bull-run.

This isn't the first theory regarding price forming a higher low double bottom instead of holding the $5-6K area. As published last year, the 50 & 200 Day death cross also resulted in a 50% drop in price in 2014 and 2018, implying a 50% probability of such an outcome (using 4 sets of available data).

2019년 12월 3일

노트

Break even stop loss now in play, too easy.

2019년 12월 5일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

Got stopped out for break-even.

2019년 12월 12일

노트

Currently back to capitulating:

2019년 12월 18일

노트

My guesstimate is a 15% chance we bottom at $3,600, 90% chance we won't break below it.
Reference: twitter.com/DragonOnRedirec/status/1206893152336011265

2019년 12월 24일

노트

Capitulation is over? I am not 100% sure on the conditions for the buy signal (blue dot), but the sold green dot indicating the bullish MA crossover is very close to this. Will update when it occurs. Here would be the equivalent "point in hash rate" to January 2019 price buy signal (blue dot) based on the Hash Ribbons indicator: