🚀 Is BTC in a Bull Market?!

Hello! I am enTHUZed an educator specializing in the Strength Trading System. A unique trading system which employs max cross margin leverage with proper position sizing to manage one’s average price while often trading in both directions. When deployed properly this system yields the highest win rate compared to all other trading systems.

🚀BTC has seen very little consolidation since breaking to daily higher highs on January 12th. Since then BTC has been bullishly trending the 12h 12 EMA, 6h 21 EMA, and 45m 200 EMA. BTC has been so bullish we have only seen hourly oversold conditions two times on January 18th & 25th both times marking the daily higher lows. Bulls will be scouting first 4h oversold conditions for a potential weekly high low. Please keep in mind the prior March 2022 weekly “Bull Fake Out” took 62 days to play out and pushed 46% off the lows prior to leading to a record 12-week pullback and bear market lower lows. 2022 will be remembered as the “Headline Trade” or “Fundamental News” year. Traders are currently divided into two camps: the “Price Action” camp, & macroeconomic “Fundamental” camp. The question all need to answer for themselves… “Is the bear market low set?”.

The Bull Case (Price Action Camp): The June 18th 2022 Super Stack oversold conditions (simultaneously oversold from the weekly to hourly) marked the psychological bear market low and the past 6 months prior to the Bull Rip was the Accumulation Zone between 25K & 15.5K. BTC remains in an uptrend on all time frames except the monthly. Since the $15,563 bear market low BTC has broken to weekly higher highs. Closing above the tertiary 21.5K lower high, briefly consolidating prior to wicking through the secondary weekly lower high at 22.8K. BTC has pushed up 55% off the lows and in regards to price action is more likely to print a higher low on the next weekly consolidation prior to potentially attempting to confirm a monthly uptrend. Confirmation of a monthly uptrend would be the final step to calling the bear market low set.
📍 Simple Statement: If BTC breaks to monthly higher highs and closes above the weekly 200 EMA (above 25K) it is very likely the Bear Market low for this cycle is set at 15.5K.

The Bear Case (Macroeconomic Fundamental Camp): The current bullish price action is simply a parabolic short squeeze off the lows seeking the weekly 200 EMA and monthly bearish double top at around 25K. Please note the weekly 38% retracement is at 28K. Once the remaining bears are fully liquidated price will resume the monthly downtrend potentially seeking monthly lower lows. The Bulls have proved nothing until price pulls back and prints a weekly higher low. “Don’t fight the FED”. The DXY is more likely to print a monthly higher low, the record fast interest rate hikes are known to have a lagging bearish effect. Unlike BTC both the NAS100 & SPX500 have yet to close to weekly higher highs. BTC is more likely to follow the traditional market indices on the macro.
📍 Simple Statement: If BTC fails to hold a weekly bullish retracement level (38-50%) during the next weekly consolidation (currently between 20.1 - 21.1K) bear market lower lows are back in the conversation.

✅IMO: We have witnessed an unprecedented parabolic short squeeze off the lows which I have coined as a “Bull Swan Event”. In this move price Bull Ripped in an unsustainable fashion taking very little time to consolidate and is now lacking support levels below 20.5K. During the past week the bullish price action has continued and the next place I will be taking a look for dynamic resistance is the weekly 200 EMA which is confluent with the monthly lower high at around 25K. What matters is the next 4h consolidation period which will indicate weekly consolidation. In regards to price action everyone needs to keep in mind it is more likely for BTC to print a weekly higher low which I will be scouting at first 4h oversold conditions.

☑️ Personally: Over the past week oversold long opportunities have been few and far between. With each move I higher I get more cautious on the long side anticipating weekly consolidation. There are an increasing number of 12h bearish Rising Wedge and potential Head & Shoulder candlestick patterns (ie APE, ETH). Almost all my Green List tickers remain red on the short side. I will not be averaging up my shorts until I see 4-12h bearishly divergent price discovery pivots. Off the lows I have been rinse & repeating the following on the long side: for AltCoins continuing to break to higher highs I am naked Day-Trade longing 15-30m confluent oversold conditions (RSI less than 32% while price is at a dynamic support level) targeting lower highs. For those tickers failing to break to higher highs I am “bottom fishing” 1-4h confluent oversold conditions with 2-4 bullet entries. At these “nose bleed highs” I would prefer a minimum of 30m oversold to make a long entry. With each BTC daily HH the odds of a consolidation increase. Experienced traders all know price will not go up forever and at some point there will likely be a dramatic Bear Dip.

👉 It is important to note:
1. BTC .D ( Bitcoin Dominance) has risen 3% over the last week.
2. Although the DXY remains weak bearishly trending the 1h 200 EMA it is starting to show some signs of life attempting to change the 1-4h trend for the bulls. We know is most likely for the DXY to print a monthly higher low compared to 89.5. The DXY monthly low will likely coincide with BTC’s local high.
3. The NAS100 & SPX500 have blasted off the lows in bearish supply & demand channels and are currently threatening to close to Weekly higher highs this week. This would likely to continue to fuel the Crypto bulls to 25K.

🚨 stream Team Green List Top 5 most bullish 50X AltCoins IMO: APT, BIT, FTM, GALA, MATIC.

*️⃣ Make your own trade decisions, I am only an educator on the Strength Trading System