Bitcoin Analysis - 23/4/2018

2018년 4월 23일

I am a price action trader.

I believe that the factors that go into the decisions which traders make that end up influencing a market are far too complex to predict or anticipate with perfect precision. Basically, I believe in trading the probabilities, not what I hope to see.

I also believe that human beings are creatures of habit, and that our habits form statistically predictable patterns over time. This is true for the markets, and we see it in all kinds of ways - but most simply in support and resistance. These patterns can be exploited to put the odds of success in your favour. And that is what this 'game' of trading and investing is all about - odds, not certainties.

Think of it like card counting. The goal is to stack the odds in your favour against the house (or market), not convince yourself of an outcome – and then your only job is to manage your risk accordingly so that you're still able to bet on the next occurrence of your edge (or hand/opportunity).

When it comes to crypto my approach is no different to stocks, commodities or forex. I am a trend-follower and swing trader who focuses only on the story of price. Sentiment and fundamentals only play a background contextual role for me.

I say all this because right now Bitcoin is at such a pivotal point where many traders think they know what is going to happen, but do they really?

Let’s break it down from a purely objective price action point of view on multiple timeframes.

1. The top left chart is the weekly chart, which is clearly still in a healthy up-trend. We have had a significant bounce from 6k, but we are still forming a flag pattern . This particular pattern has a higher probability of breaking-out to the upside than the downside, but we cannot be certain when it has 'finished' forming.

2. The top right chart is the Daily chart . As we 'zoom' in, we begin to see closer detail and clues. Here, the bearish Log trend-line has been broken, indicating a potential trend-reversal on this particular timeframe. It does not mean the market is going to explode to the upside like it did in December, but it also is rather bullish.

3. The bottom left corner is the 4hr chart. This is where I like to get my short-term perspective. Like the Daily, this looks bullish to me - although we are pushing up against a major resistance level at 9k and another one awaits us at 9.5k. Expect a correction soon, but if we do correct watch 8k to potentially act as support and a good buying opportunity for swing traders or people who missed out on the bottom at 6k.

4. The bottom right corner is the 1hr chart. Like the 4hr, it is bullish , but overdue for a correction.

TLDR: Things are looking very bullish, but we have several zones of resistance to break through yet. The bearish Log trendline on the Weekly and Daily has been confirmed broken, but we still have resistance to face at 9k, 9.5k and 11.5k before we have any clear shot at re-taking the previous highs near 20k. I am expecting that to happen by the end of this year, but I am also ready to exit my positions if we begin to fail at resistance and break support levels to the downside on 4hr or Daily chart.