Bitcoin failing to break-out before the Halving?

There is only a 25% chance of a successful break-out above a channel. Considering we are in a big trading range I see it more likely that BTC fails to break above 8k strongly to go to 10k. Since, all expect the halving to be the most bullish event, and traders tend to get disappointed, I think it's more likely that we will revisit 6k before going up. I think a disappointing drop after the halving is very well possible, maybe to revisit 6k or even 5k.