Will the breakout be a rocket or a crash? I don't know yet... but, I have three great ways to tell when it starts and be able to jump in early to catch most of the action.
1. We're in a massive ascending wedge. These wedges can go either way, but they usually break out explosively. The action in Nikkei and Crude Oil during the middle of last year are two great examples of both scenarios.
2. Volume is declining, showing that there is a lot of pent up energy which will fuel the breakout regardless of direction.
3. RSI is massively diverged, but it would be a mistake to see that as a definitive bearish signal. We're at the stage in the cycle where momentum is diverged so frequently that it ceases to be a reliable signal. What does matter is the direction that it breaks out of it's own pennant.
I'll jump in once all three patterns have been broken. The worst mistake I could make would be picking a side now instead of waiting to see which way the wind starts blowing.
This is all my personal opinion. It's not advice.
On a side note, I recently asked a guy what his stoploss for bitcoin was, and he said 100k. What?! That's how I imagine most participants at this point.
1. We're in a massive ascending wedge. These wedges can go either way, but they usually break out explosively. The action in Nikkei and Crude Oil during the middle of last year are two great examples of both scenarios.
2. Volume is declining, showing that there is a lot of pent up energy which will fuel the breakout regardless of direction.
3. RSI is massively diverged, but it would be a mistake to see that as a definitive bearish signal. We're at the stage in the cycle where momentum is diverged so frequently that it ceases to be a reliable signal. What does matter is the direction that it breaks out of it's own pennant.
I'll jump in once all three patterns have been broken. The worst mistake I could make would be picking a side now instead of waiting to see which way the wind starts blowing.
This is all my personal opinion. It's not advice.
On a side note, I recently asked a guy what his stoploss for bitcoin was, and he said 100k. What?! That's how I imagine most participants at this point.
코멘트:
Short term technicals are becoming more bearish by the hour.
코멘트:
Wedge breakout - done
Price check - done
RSI breakout - done
Volume - no breakout yet
53k support - Still intact, but has been tested twice in the last few days.
Price check - done
RSI breakout - done
Volume - no breakout yet
53k support - Still intact, but has been tested twice in the last few days.
코멘트:
Volume - done
53k support - broken
53k support - broken
On the other hand, if we re-enter the wedge it'll be inconclusive.