If bitcoin survives... new shift of big players in Crypto

2020년 3월 14일

There is a lot going on in the world to determine the start for a new bull market or bitcoin still needs to find a new bottom. Do we get one more big shake out (finishing the ABC) or even worse: Will Bitcoin fail?

Many people were talking "bitcoin will be the new safe haven". Probably the incoming recession would even be a perfect timing to show the world about what bitcoin is capable of. Personally I thought Bitcoin is making a good change. But what about the scenario of a world depression? Okay, we did expect the bubble of the stock market will collapse sooner or later. But on top of that, what about all basic fundamentals and needs to survive are getting scares? What whet even healthy companies will break?

People need cash and companies need a strong cashflow to survive. So if bitcoin can't be a safe haven right now, is this world event too early for bitcoin?
You could say, people also sell their gold? I think there are at least THREE good reasons gold still is a save haven and bitcoin not (yet):

* Gold market-cap of 7.7 Trillion against 98 Billion US$ of bitcoin.
* BTC has just a few Wales, which makes BTC extra vulnerable for big moves.
* Panic, emotional or impulsive actions: Clicking a button for selling BTC is much easier than selling Physical and heavyweight gold.

So for now, Bitcoin is falling just as hard as the stocks, until the bottom is reach. How far this bottom will reach? I don't know. Following the ABC pattern, even a bottom around $950 is possible. And of course there's also a good change we've already seen the bottom of 3.800. So, with TA alone we can't predict it, we're fully depended on the world situations and crises development.

But what we do know is people who have enough cash in the end of the 'game', can get in BTC very cheap. The closer the price gets to $1000 (or lower), the easer it is to (re)enter the BTC market with a really big amount of new BTC. This is a good opportunity for new and existing players to own 100-20.000 BTC.

I think most of the top 50 Whales stil be the top 50 after this bloodbath. But with a bottom of $1000, I think a big re-shuffle will come for the top 15.000 owners.
The lower the price, the bigger of BTC distribution will be spread to new incoming players. At the end, bitcoin will make a good change to be a safe haven next to gold.

Good luck to all!