While I anticipate a fairly brief 'relief' rally, possibly up towards 44.6k, there can be little doubt that BTC looks set for yet further correction from it’s 2020 – 2021 charge
The weekly moving averages of significance (50 & 20 MA) crossed down on 14th March and if we take a look back at the historical data regarding these crosses it makes for break reading.
In 2014 they crossed and this saw the price fall by over 74% over a 154 day period before beginning to move back towards the upside.
In 2018 they crossed again and this saw the price fall by over 50% over a 175 day period before again returning to it’s upside move.
Early on in 202 there was a black swan event in the form on the COVID-19 crash which I will not count for this analysis.
Looking at this historic data I am expecting a 150 – 175 day period of sustained bearishness with lower highs and lower lows on a weekly basis. With a potential 46% price drop falling at least to 30-35k and possibly even somewhere between 22-25k.
A wick down to this area would also fill a much needed gap in the CME which has previously caused BTC to have it’s handbrake on when reaching for new highs.
Coincide this with the DXY, which has a confirmed negative correlation with BTC, looking unstoppable on it’s charge to 102 and the bitcoin bull support band falling through everything seems to align to this idea.
As always, please leave a like and let me know your thoughts.
The weekly moving averages of significance (50 & 20 MA) crossed down on 14th March and if we take a look back at the historical data regarding these crosses it makes for break reading.
In 2014 they crossed and this saw the price fall by over 74% over a 154 day period before beginning to move back towards the upside.
In 2018 they crossed again and this saw the price fall by over 50% over a 175 day period before again returning to it’s upside move.
Early on in 202 there was a black swan event in the form on the COVID-19 crash which I will not count for this analysis.
Looking at this historic data I am expecting a 150 – 175 day period of sustained bearishness with lower highs and lower lows on a weekly basis. With a potential 46% price drop falling at least to 30-35k and possibly even somewhere between 22-25k.
A wick down to this area would also fill a much needed gap in the CME which has previously caused BTC to have it’s handbrake on when reaching for new highs.
Coincide this with the DXY, which has a confirmed negative correlation with BTC, looking unstoppable on it’s charge to 102 and the bitcoin bull support band falling through everything seems to align to this idea.
As always, please leave a like and let me know your thoughts.
