Another crazy Bitcoin idea, preparing for the V shape low

업데이트됨

So it has been a while again since i have written a big story here. Since the breakout we had on Monday to the 6700/6800 Bitcoin has surprisingly been moving sideways again :). Price movement was looking quite strong since that breakout and we could see some profit taking and selling at the 6700/6800 but then the hack news came out and messed things up again for the bulls. But the panic selling was at a very minimum and i could see allot of buy orders already waiting to get filled around the 6550/6600 like they already knew what was about to happen and were not afraid whatsoever of that FUD news. That's what makes this world so great, insider info RULES!!
Since that low around 6550 Bitcoin seemed to be moving in a bear flag but it bulls were protecting it quite well and than all of a sudden we had that bullish news about Tether. They finally had a report that would remove all the doubts people had about them. My first reaction was, crap i might need to change my whole bearish view for the mid-term. No problem but i would mean that i had to think things through again. But after reading the Tether news more closely, it seems like the report has no value at all so actually nothing has changed. The movement of the market confirms this because the rally did not push through, not even close!

For the short term i think we could see another retest of the resistance around the 6800/6900 before making a drop again. It will probably take the whole weekend before something real will happen so i guess we will see these beautiful Bart moves, that have blessed this market the past months. Maybe we could even change this market from Crypto market to Bart market and give our thanks to Bitmex for this opportunity.
There seems to be an inverse H&S and bulls are trying to break the neckline, but i think this H&S will fail. I might break the neckline but i think there is not enough buying power in the market to push it much higher. So we will probably see allot of sideways movement the coming days and probably allot of distribution again. But these thoughts all fit the same picture i have been announcing for a few weeks now. Hopefully we see that panic V shape low and get over with this bear market. That big triangle shows us very low prices, but this might be the ultimate test to see where buyers really jump in to buy this market up. So if we drop big and we don't see a bounce up big, it will be a horrible year for bulls waiting to see higher prices.
Those red resistance area's are the levels the bulls need to take out to prevent a big V shape low. If they are able to push it above the 7800 this mid-term bear market might be over.

David

Previous analysis:

$Another Bitcoin fractal, part 2$

노트

Even thought the chart on the lower time frames say we should make a (small) drop, i think we will go higher, not rally but probably like 6850/6950. But the 6680ish should hold! Below this level we should test the 6550 again

노트

Think me might see another move up, this sideways crap just keeps going on, and moving sideways through support lines. The pattern normally says we should make a drop, but seems like the market has other intentions. So as long as the 6680 support hold, i think we might see a move higher like i mentioned in the previous analysis

노트

So the market is even weaker than I thought it was, this could be a bad sign for the bulls. Even if we see a bounce now, if it only makes a lower high around 7600/7700 it will probably be the perfect opportunity to short it again.

노트

I was just awake for a minute or so, thought i would warn you guys. But i had a plan in my mind for when this drop would happen, seems i misjudged that hoping for 6800/6900 before the drop. It's quite certain the next wave down has started already, of course there will be a correction upwards again, but impossible to say where it can go, probably not above the 6500/6550 as far as i can see now

노트

Chaos, seems like we have the start of the V shape low already? 6000 is a big support of course, but the previous low broke already. Doesn't mean much because only with a few points. Only hope bulls have now, is a double bottom. But i think best case only a correction up, so it can just continue the drop later on. I expected a dump sooner or later, but did not think it would drop like a rock this soon already.

노트

6300 should be the new big resistance level now. If bulls manage to break that, than things could cool down and we could have a slow sideways weekend.

노트

There is chance we could see the start of a correction now, looks like a very small double bottom has been made, could work as support now. But IMO only temp

노트

Still looking weak, big chance it’s just a bigger bear flag that it’s making now. So be aware of another drop

노트

Think we might be getting close to a low now, probably not the mid-term low, but maybe for the coming days. Depends on what will happen the coming hours of course

노트

So just keeps on dropping again, bulls are to weak on each attempt to push higher. Yesterdays break of 6150 to 6250 seems to only have been a small bear shake out just to continue the drop again. But we are at support now it seems, so far the 5800 is holding. Difficult to say what's next, and the drops are probably still not over. But i think the coming week should/could be a few days of recovery. I think it's even time for a short squeeze, but can't say when it will happen. Low could be set already, but the jumps up or very weak, no conviction at all. In the chart you se 2 scenario's i think might could happen. If we follow the red line, we could be in the making of a bigger wegde

노트

Probably test the low again or maybe even below it

노트

think the low is set for today

노트

Reversal day today, think 6600 is minimum for the coming days. Depends on how things go after, maybe even THE low, but to soon to say.

노트

Very convincing breakout, volume is confirming it as well. Didn't think they would do this already but seems the market has no patience. The 6200 should hold from now on and we could see 6600 very soon from the looks of it

노트

The rally has turned to shit again, what seemed to be so confident and strong by the bulls, has been really dissapointing the last few hours. The should have at least make a higher high, even if it was like 50/100 points above todays rally. So things are looking less bullish than a few hours ago now. The inverse H&S is starting to turn into a bearish wedge. But 6250 and 6130 are still good support levels

노트

Still moving very slow, bears and bulls both are not showing their hand. Dropped out of the wedge, and the bounce is very weak. The support area is still holding though. Normally would say we should drop, but i have my doubts about that. I would see a break of the 6130 as a real sign of weakness

노트

This is one of the reasons why i don't want to take on a trade yet, bulls are weak at the moment, bears are weak. It could follow the same path. The bearish wedge indicates we should drop to 5900/5700. But i give that a small chance at the moment, more like 25%. But we could drop to 6050/6100 (green support area). But for now the 6200 is still holding very good, and bulls are trying to turn up again.

노트

Bitcoin is still holding up okay, even though it dropped a bit more than i thought it would. But Alts, are surprisingly very VERY weak. Actually even shows how weak the market still is, no confirmation of course, but showing the market still wants to make another drop soon. They are not ready to pump like they used to do.

Bitcoin is trying to turn up from this low, but the bounce is quite small still. not very convincing yet. Yesterday i would say only 10/20% we break the 5800 to make a new low, not it's still not likely IMO, but now i would say more like 35%, because the Alts are so weak, they make me doubt a bit.
The support from the chart here above broke a little bit, but there is still some hope though, they need to hold this low, otherwise i can't say where the next support is, except maybe 5900

노트

Bulls are trying to hold the support and keep it above the 6000. This is a good sign, but the market is still weak and before starting to think the market can push much higher coming days/weeks, we really need to see different price action than we have seen the past 2 days. IMO the 5900 should not break, if it does, it could mean very big troubles