Euphoria Blindness

2022년 4월 6일

Wouldn't it be amazing if there was an indicator out there that would pint point Bitcoin cycle tops. Does such indicator even exist?

Well what you see in the chart is in fact the best indicator ever created and everyone is quickly to forget what the Pi cycle indicator was telling you three days before the cycle top.

Now I know what your thinking November 2021 technically went higher than April 2021.

April 14th 2021 - 64900
November 10th 2021- 69185

(segment taken from previous TA)
The top in April 2022 was the true cycle top the one that followed after was just pure manipulation , that run to 70k was just a trap , with only half of the Bitcoin address active for that run , price still managed to get to all time high and like clockwork the 7-10 year old wallets come in again and sell a massive amount of Bitcoin creating yet another Bitcoin top. So yeah that run was created by the few ,there was no hype , no retail just whales. Take a look at the link below of on-chain data.
ibb.co/PM4PzKs

My theory on why April was the true cycle top and not November.

Indicator Overview

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days.

It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.

Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA not the number of days.

For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.

It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.

lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

So this indicator predicts cycle tops three days before its peak and guess what we had a cross April 12th 2021 and we peaked three days later on on April 14th 2021 (counting 12 as a day) the Pi cycle crossed marking a Bitcoin cycle top. At the time the euphoria in the market was so powerful that it blinded everyone from what this indicator was telling you.

It was the first time since the last cycle top and cross that everyone used this indicator and I remember countless of traders calling out the Pi cycle indicator for failing. Its incredible how blind euphoria and greed can make you, we had the signal right there in front of us with just a simple cross and yet most of the market disregarded it.

This is the most powerful cycle top indicator ever created and when the next cross comes and euphoria is all time high , will you sell ? or will you disregard it?