I'm basically putting down my thoughts here to review later.
I have recently noticed an imbalance in perp positioning. I can see a general rush to re-enter closed perp positions. People are also piling into ETH to prepare for the upcoming ETF approval. Luckily for them, the market is bullish and I expect good long term spot flows.
I expect the ETF to be approved, however I think the ETH ETFs may generate 10-20% of the demand BTC had. People unwinding the ETHE spread trade will also create spot selling. Remember that selling spot and buying perps is not 100% net neutral. It depends on the liquidity at the time. (I haven't really dug into the data because I do not plan to trade the possible ETF approval, but the ETF is absolutely long term bullish for ETH, and my current ETH trade is expected to take a year or more.)
In terms of the general market, I suspect we may be entering a period similar to the 50k to 70k rally, or the 20k to 30k rally of the previous cycle, where heavy spot buying provides a free ride to all perp positions. (Of course I will close if my idea is invalidated and BTC looks consistently weak). It also appears crypto is gaining ground in the US, which is a good sign for price.
Basically, my plan is to remain bullish without getting liquidated. I'm still holding my BTC long, as well as my newly acquired ETH longs. The peace of mind you get from holding a great entry far outweighs the small % gains from babysitting a position, plus I am not a great short term trader anyway.
I have recently noticed an imbalance in perp positioning. I can see a general rush to re-enter closed perp positions. People are also piling into ETH to prepare for the upcoming ETF approval. Luckily for them, the market is bullish and I expect good long term spot flows.
I expect the ETF to be approved, however I think the ETH ETFs may generate 10-20% of the demand BTC had. People unwinding the ETHE spread trade will also create spot selling. Remember that selling spot and buying perps is not 100% net neutral. It depends on the liquidity at the time. (I haven't really dug into the data because I do not plan to trade the possible ETF approval, but the ETF is absolutely long term bullish for ETH, and my current ETH trade is expected to take a year or more.)
In terms of the general market, I suspect we may be entering a period similar to the 50k to 70k rally, or the 20k to 30k rally of the previous cycle, where heavy spot buying provides a free ride to all perp positions. (Of course I will close if my idea is invalidated and BTC looks consistently weak). It also appears crypto is gaining ground in the US, which is a good sign for price.
Basically, my plan is to remain bullish without getting liquidated. I'm still holding my BTC long, as well as my newly acquired ETH longs. The peace of mind you get from holding a great entry far outweighs the small % gains from babysitting a position, plus I am not a great short term trader anyway.