Introduction
Bitcoin has been winding up above its previous top for many months. If you check the chart habitually or have been in an altcoin that has been bleeding out while bitcoin has been going sideways this has been a very painful time for you. Somethings got to give very soon.
Indicators
The most important indicators for this chart are going to be the weekly and monthly Stop and Reverse Indicator. These are desiged to approach price action from a previous high or low and when price action hits the SAR the next Sar begins from the previous high or low.
For example, when the price action rises to hit a SAR that is above it the next SAR appears beneath it at the value of the previous low. It then will approach the price action based on its formula.
From Wikipedia
Right now price has been going sideways and the Monthly SAR is beneath price action. Given the total context this is bullish. The Weekly SAR is above price action. So price is being compressed between two different indicators that have been programed potentially into countless of bots and algos to determine bias. Countless other traders have alerts that will signal when the monthly or weekly SAR are touched by price action so they can reassess the charts.
I have simplified the ADX to just the DI+ and the DI-. My linked idea will show I called the end of the bull market down to the week it ended. Since the bear market ended we don't see anything to concerning with the DI +/-. We are not in bear territory and our bias is still bullish. As price goes sideways and up I expect to see an upswing in DI+ and downside to DI-
In a macro bull on the bullish time frame you actually add to your positions when the weekly time frames are bearish. We can see price action is currently bearish on the weekly time frame as the DI- is above the DI+. This is when you buy if you have "strong hands"
Price Action
Large moves require structure and they require wind up. If you have been focused on the daily or weekly charts you might have missed the fact that bitcoin has clearly been creating structure on top of its previous high. So long as it continues to do so the bias is more upside. Price can wind up below a previous high before legging upward or downward. But so long as it closes above the previous high we continue to set a higher high.
What to look for
Its quite simple. We are looking for price action to, on a monthly basis, stay above the blue box and continue to go sideways and then up. We are also looking for the weekly SAR to flip and then both monthly and weekly SAR will be bullish.
From there the next major target is for bitcoin to roughly double at the 2.0 Fib level around 125K. Anything above the 2.618 fib level for the next market cycle top is too greedy for me. Of course, if bitcoin closes a monthly chart below the blue box, of hits the monthly SAR and flips that to bearish then this idea is negated.
Bitcoin has been winding up above its previous top for many months. If you check the chart habitually or have been in an altcoin that has been bleeding out while bitcoin has been going sideways this has been a very painful time for you. Somethings got to give very soon.
Indicators
The most important indicators for this chart are going to be the weekly and monthly Stop and Reverse Indicator. These are desiged to approach price action from a previous high or low and when price action hits the SAR the next Sar begins from the previous high or low.
For example, when the price action rises to hit a SAR that is above it the next SAR appears beneath it at the value of the previous low. It then will approach the price action based on its formula.
From Wikipedia
the concept draws on the idea that "time is the enemy". Thus, unless a security can continue to generate more profits over time, it should be liquidated. The indicator generally works only in trending markets, and creates "whipsaws" during ranging or, sideways phases. Therefore, Wilder recommends first establishing the direction or change in direction of the trend through the use of parabolic SAR, and then using a different indicator such as the Average Directional Index to determine the strength of the trend.
Right now price has been going sideways and the Monthly SAR is beneath price action. Given the total context this is bullish. The Weekly SAR is above price action. So price is being compressed between two different indicators that have been programed potentially into countless of bots and algos to determine bias. Countless other traders have alerts that will signal when the monthly or weekly SAR are touched by price action so they can reassess the charts.
I have simplified the ADX to just the DI+ and the DI-. My linked idea will show I called the end of the bull market down to the week it ended. Since the bear market ended we don't see anything to concerning with the DI +/-. We are not in bear territory and our bias is still bullish. As price goes sideways and up I expect to see an upswing in DI+ and downside to DI-
In a macro bull on the bullish time frame you actually add to your positions when the weekly time frames are bearish. We can see price action is currently bearish on the weekly time frame as the DI- is above the DI+. This is when you buy if you have "strong hands"
Price Action
Large moves require structure and they require wind up. If you have been focused on the daily or weekly charts you might have missed the fact that bitcoin has clearly been creating structure on top of its previous high. So long as it continues to do so the bias is more upside. Price can wind up below a previous high before legging upward or downward. But so long as it closes above the previous high we continue to set a higher high.
What to look for
Its quite simple. We are looking for price action to, on a monthly basis, stay above the blue box and continue to go sideways and then up. We are also looking for the weekly SAR to flip and then both monthly and weekly SAR will be bullish.
From there the next major target is for bitcoin to roughly double at the 2.0 Fib level around 125K. Anything above the 2.618 fib level for the next market cycle top is too greedy for me. Of course, if bitcoin closes a monthly chart below the blue box, of hits the monthly SAR and flips that to bearish then this idea is negated.
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