Will Bullish Retest of 2017 BTC Top Be Successful?
There are many factors involved in current BTC price dynamics, which I will not get into right now. But if you are a long term bull, it makes a lot of sense to accumulate here at 20k.
If you view the weekly runup to the 2017 top of $19660, subsequent dump to $3120, and return to ATH as an ascending triangle pattern, the break above 20k on volume validated it. We never hit the log target of this bullish pattern, and instead price has retraced back to the horizontal top of the ascending triangle. This is a great test of the pattern, and we should get very clear direction on BTC's price trend the remainder of 2022 based on what happens next.
It just so happens that the exponential trend from the 2015 bottom and 2020 bottom is also supporting price at this level (red line). The confluence of these super long term trendlines provides a strong support zone that will be tough for bears to break. This is a great bull setup if support holds.
On the other hand, if we were to close the weekly under 18k, there will very likely be another wave of capitulation, and the bull case for the medium term will be invalidated. I put the chances of this quite low, but further macro deterioration would definitely keep this market gripped by fear, so nothing is off the table.
Trade safe, and do yourself a favor if you are hodling - pull your coins off exchange and keep in a hardware wallet, with seed phrase backed up safely!
Namaste frens, WGMI
If you view the weekly runup to the 2017 top of $19660, subsequent dump to $3120, and return to ATH as an ascending triangle pattern, the break above 20k on volume validated it. We never hit the log target of this bullish pattern, and instead price has retraced back to the horizontal top of the ascending triangle. This is a great test of the pattern, and we should get very clear direction on BTC's price trend the remainder of 2022 based on what happens next.
It just so happens that the exponential trend from the 2015 bottom and 2020 bottom is also supporting price at this level (red line). The confluence of these super long term trendlines provides a strong support zone that will be tough for bears to break. This is a great bull setup if support holds.
On the other hand, if we were to close the weekly under 18k, there will very likely be another wave of capitulation, and the bull case for the medium term will be invalidated. I put the chances of this quite low, but further macro deterioration would definitely keep this market gripped by fear, so nothing is off the table.
Trade safe, and do yourself a favor if you are hodling - pull your coins off exchange and keep in a hardware wallet, with seed phrase backed up safely!
Namaste frens, WGMI
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