Crypto Alpha Report (January 1)

1월 1일

Monday Alpha Report
2025 01 01

Happy New Year to you all! 2024 was an unmitigated year of prosperity and profit for our community, and it will only get better in 2025.

Executive Summary:
-Altcoins continue to outperform Bitcoin. While not giving full credence to the idea of alt season, it is slowly beginning to materialize as key metrics evolve.
-High probability of Bitcoin rallying into Trump’s inauguration; however, caution is still warranted as downside risks are still strong.
-Ethereum is likely to continue to underperform Bitcoin in 2025.
-AI Agents continue to explode, and you should be allocated.

Macro:
Stablecoin Dominance


6.00% still stands as resistance, keeping this metric from pushing us into bearish territory. The bulls do not want this metric in an uptrend, and as the 30 MA creeps closer to the 50 MA, we need to be vigilant for a breakout on this metric to confirm a breakout to test the 200 SMA. For now, the market is indecisive.

Stablecoin + Bitcoin Dominance


This metric wants to continue the bearish trend, which would bode well for altcoin positions. A resumed downtrend in this metric will correlate to rising altcoin prices, so altcoins, for now, are still a better play than Bitcoin.

Altcoin Price Performance vs. Bitcoin


Daily momentum returns to the upside, signaling a potential breakout on this metric after putting in a Higher Low. A pushback up to re-test the long-term downtrend resistance will mean a return to the froth of the altcoin markets.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s price is consolidating, with the Daily Timeframe showing a potential reversal.

Trends:

5M: Bullish
30M: Bullish
1H: Neutral
4H: Bearish

Price must close a 4H candle above $95,000 to strengthen the reversal narrative. That close would also confirm the potential Adam & Eve reversal pattern in the same timeframe. Volatility has dropped significantly on the Daily and 4H time frame, and price has found support at $93,000.

Key Levels:

POC: $93,727
VWAP: $93,676
Value Area High: $94,337 - $94,700
Value Area Low: $93,730 - $92,851

Strategy:

When Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend, it closes its Weekly and Monthly Candles very close to their highs. When Bitcoin’s strength wanes, it begins closing much lower than its highs, as seen in the last two weekly and December’s monthly candles.

In other words, when Bitcoin is no longer strongly uptrending, as it is now, it tends to pump during the beginning of the month and sell off into the later half of the month. This aligns perfectly with the upcoming catalyst of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. Anticipating a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type situation, with a potential bull trap emerging in the latter half of this month.

While downside risks are still very evident, given that we are trading below the 4H Moving Averages, the Daily Timeframe shows momentum returning to the upside following a bounce off the 60 DMA.

Should the current reversal play out, I expect price to make a run to $100,000 over the next two weeks and potentially higher. We should be cautious of a bull trap at that time.

Risk-hungry traders could begin starting a position with invalidation below $93,000 or wait for a 4H close above $95,000 and 4H momentum to be regained.

Altcoins:

I see altcoins performing well also over the next two weeks, likely front-running Trump’s inauguration same as Bitcoin. Again, downside risk is real, but we saw some strong buybacks today.

XRP - Target of $2.70.
ENA - Target of $1.20.
HBAR - Target of $0.35.
FTM - Target of $0.96.

Again, I’m cautiously optimistic. I cycled about 30% of my portfolio into altcoins today, 20% into AI Agents (Zerebro, SPORE, Pillzumi, Nothing, YNE, SEN), and the rest into Bitcoin. We’re probably bottomed out for now, but I will cut Bitcoin and alts fast if we start heading for the lows again. We will hold AI Agents until we lose momentum, but that’s the meta play for this year.