Be greedy when others are fearful

업데이트됨

So here I am... Surrounded by Elliot Waves facing towards 4k, Cups and Handles targeting 3k, people calling for final capitulation at 2k, FUD concerning Indian banks banning crypto... Feels like everyone and their plumber is panicking.

Yet when taking a look at the daily charts, things look pretty straightforward. We left the green-blue falling wedge on sunday (due to the obvious divergences I noted in my previous chart analysis). Sundays are usually a "taking profits" day, but we went up... then, the bullish momentum did not held through monday and we wicked the minimums of last week after a heavy dump. Price has hold a line from April 1st lows which suggest a bullish channel forming that I highlighted in green. Similarly, we couldn't break price highs coming from the red bearish channel coming from weeks before which acted as a support through March 20-26. Both channels have formed a nice ABCDE symmetric triangle which suggest a failed impulsive wave 5 by Elliot's standards. I don't trust EW theories that much, but take this as an extra perspective.

Anyway, I've highlighted the symmetric triangle in orange, and it has lead us out of the mega-bearish falling wedge for now. Following Bulkowski's guidelines thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html, falling wedges break upward 68% of the times and he suggests two possible target prices:
-Either a equal price as the highest high of the wedge: that'd be a full 100% retracement to 9400€ ($11500)
-Measure the highest hight and the lowest low in PIPS, and multiply it by the percentage meeting price target for up breakdowns which is 70%, that'd be roughly 9400€ - 5200€ = 4200PIPS x 0,7 = 2940PIPS or abour 8400€ ($10380). That falls a bit short of 78.60% Fib retracement of the wedge.

Following other forex trading websites indications suggest a target of the maximum height between trendlines, that being 2350PIPS, leading to 7850€. That'd be a 61.80% Fib retracement of said wedge.

This bullish sentiment could be confirmed by the annotations I made in the indicators here

For the foreseeable future, if my theory is correct and following Bulkowski's pattern site thepatternsite.com/st.html the chance of an upward breakout of the triangle is 54%, and it'd retrace a 66% height around 6400€ ($7900) which lands perfectly within the green channel that we seem to be bottoming for now.

We need to close these days in the triangle and out of the wedge for this theory to be validated, but when MACD, Stochastic, RSI and Stochastich RSI all hint bullish reactivation... it'd be surprising to break down.

oh and PS: i need 5 reputation to be able to comment in other people's charts, I'm stuck with 45 reputation. Make a frog happy and give me just 5 upvotes :D. I promise this is the last time I'm beggin for it.

Good luck fellow traders!

액티브 트레이드

well, here's the breakout I called days before. Relocated the arrow to get an accurate target and it can possibly break the bullish channel to the upside. Hell, this could be the final nail in the coffin of the bear market if we close some candles out of the giant purple bear trendline. Might reach targets of the falling wedge within 2-3 days. Will post a newer analysis

액티브 트레이드

gonna wait for sunday until weekly candle closes, but this is looking pretty much the market reversal I was predicting some days ago. I won't take profits until we reach wedge targets

노트

so we wicked the 78,60% retracement of yesterday's push but the green channel is now acting as support. There's room for the Stochastic to grow to 100, and if I had to guess that'd be hit around the price of the white Fib 38.20% retracement on the left, which conveniently aligns moreless with the 50-day MA and is half the target price of the breakout of the falling wedge. We'll probably retrace tomorrow a bit when touching the 50MA and retest the top of the channel as a support, then hit targets of the wedge breakout.

노트

Also, on the bigger scheme of things, targets of the wedge would be like the "return to the mean" meme after the popping of a economic bubble