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BTC - Daily Timeframe *Important*
BTC is creating the perfect short trade setup on the daily timeframe. After an almost 65% move from the lows, BTC is finally showing some serious weakness. In this chart I have outlined all the key bearish signals you should analyze for yourself.
The first is our solid purple horizontal line. After BTC crashed from
48K, this was the first major support level (24,500) in May 2022. This is an extremely key price level as it held as resistance mid July 2022 and late July 2022. It also called our top (Aug 2022) before the plunge to 15.5k. Our top came in a little above 25.2k with all of the daily candle bodies closing below that key purple line demonstrating the strength of the old buyers becoming new sellers.
Present day we are seeing the same structure form. Multiple tops above 25.2k with most of the daily candles closing below 24.5k. A daily close above 25.2k would negate this bearish structure.
The second thing to analyze is our solid red horizontal line. This shows our key tops around the 25.2k level. Right now we have about 5 with 3 being exactly at the $25,250 level.
The third and most important aspect of this chart is the massive bearish divergence we have been forming for the past 36 days. Bearish divergence is when price continues to move higher while the RSI (relative strength index) makes lower highs. This shows that although price is continuing higher, the strength of the buyers is decreasing rapidly. Over the past 36 days I have noted 5 examples of bearish divergence with the 1D RSI labeled 1-5.
1. Price: $21,258 - $23,371
RSI: 89.40 - 86.02
2. Price: $23,180 - $23,960
RSI: 85.38 - 83.54
3. Price: $23,960 - $24,255
RSI: 83.54 - 73.82
4. Price: $24,255 - $25,250
RSI: 73.82 - 68.13
Key note: The RSI topped out almost exactly at overbought on this retest.
5. Price: $25,250 - $25,250
RSI: 68.13 - 65.67
Key Note: Stagnant Double top with bearish divergence.
This is a very strong bearish divergence therefore price will very likely fall. If we fall we would look for a retest around the 0.618-0.786. To negate this bearish divergence we would need a close above $25,400 and our RSI to break the 85 level on the daily.
The first is our solid purple horizontal line. After BTC crashed from
48K, this was the first major support level (24,500) in May 2022. This is an extremely key price level as it held as resistance mid July 2022 and late July 2022. It also called our top (Aug 2022) before the plunge to 15.5k. Our top came in a little above 25.2k with all of the daily candle bodies closing below that key purple line demonstrating the strength of the old buyers becoming new sellers. Present day we are seeing the same structure form. Multiple tops above 25.2k with most of the daily candles closing below 24.5k. A daily close above 25.2k would negate this bearish structure.
The second thing to analyze is our solid red horizontal line. This shows our key tops around the 25.2k level. Right now we have about 5 with 3 being exactly at the $25,250 level.
The third and most important aspect of this chart is the massive bearish divergence we have been forming for the past 36 days. Bearish divergence is when price continues to move higher while the RSI (relative strength index) makes lower highs. This shows that although price is continuing higher, the strength of the buyers is decreasing rapidly. Over the past 36 days I have noted 5 examples of bearish divergence with the 1D RSI labeled 1-5.
1. Price: $21,258 - $23,371
RSI: 89.40 - 86.02
2. Price: $23,180 - $23,960
RSI: 85.38 - 83.54
3. Price: $23,960 - $24,255
RSI: 83.54 - 73.82
4. Price: $24,255 - $25,250
RSI: 73.82 - 68.13
Key note: The RSI topped out almost exactly at overbought on this retest.
5. Price: $25,250 - $25,250
RSI: 68.13 - 65.67
Key Note: Stagnant Double top with bearish divergence.
This is a very strong bearish divergence therefore price will very likely fall. If we fall we would look for a retest around the 0.618-0.786. To negate this bearish divergence we would need a close above $25,400 and our RSI to break the 85 level on the daily.
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