Bitcoin Blow-Off Top

Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong rally into the $120k region. On the weekly timeframe, several signals point toward a potential corrective leg lower:

📊 Key Technicals

Major Supply Zone: $115k–$120k area has acted as resistance, with sellers defending this level.

Trend Structure: Price has broken momentum after the blow-off move and is now trading below recent highs.

EMA Support: Price is extended above the EMA 60 (94k), leaving room for mean reversion.

COT Data: Commercials are heavily net short with a COT Index blow-off signal, indicating distribution from strong hands to weak hands.

🎯 Trade Thesis

The risk-reward favors the short side from current levels.

Initial downside target sits at the $95k region (prior resistance turned support + EMA alignment).

A break of that level could open the door toward the $80k handle in the medium term.

📌 Plan

Entry: 114k–116k

Stop: Above 120k

Targets:

TP1: 95k

TP2: 80k

💡 This setup combines market structure, supply zone rejection, and institutional positioning via COT. The technical picture suggests Bitcoin is vulnerable to a deeper pullback before any further sustainable rally.