Mind The Gap: An In-Depth Analysis on CME Gaps

This analyses shows what happened during the last 10 CME gaps. We can use this information to create a scenario on the future predicted price of BTCUSD given the current gap.

We can observe that 8 out of 10 CME gaps were filled within reasonable time. The gap from the 29th of January was filled 30 days later, but I considered this too long. I have been focusing on gaps that were filled within about 7 days. In this case we get a 80% success ratio (and a 90% success ratio when you make it into a 30 day window).

Applying this on the current gap, we are roughly 9% below the top of the gap. This means that we can trade this 9% potential and aim to have the gap recovered within the coming week. Based on historical data purely this should give us around an 80% success rate.

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Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!