BTCUSD 5/14/2021

업데이트됨

Note: NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE TO BUY/LONG OR SELL/SHORT
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This TA is an update on the TA last April 24, 2021 in the related ideas.

If there is no weekly closed above $ 60,350.00, then it's bearish on weekly timeframe.

I think more tradeable on ALTs than Bitcoin.

But be careful as Bitcoin making some pullbacks that may affect adversely your TA on ALTs.
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Monthly Timeframe
As I said in my previous Technical Analysis, there is a high likelihood that Bitcoin will test EMA 9 in the Monthly timeframe after several weeks of being above EMA 9. In this month of May 2021, there is high probability of testing EMA 9 which currently at a range from $ 39,372.47 to $ 39,630.00. EMA 9 in the weekly timeframe is in confluence with Fibonacci and Moving Average in the lower timeframes. In RSI on the Monthly timeframe, there is high probability of testing RSI 70 level. In Stoch RSI on the Monthly timeframe, there is a high probability of testing Stoch RSI 80 level. MACD shows declining buying pressure for this month but not enough to stop this bull run on Bitcoin. So, in general, Monthly timeframe still in favor for the bulls and a potential pullback to EMA 9 is a higher probability.
Bitstamp

CME Futures

Weekly Timeframe and Elliot Wave Counts
The Elliot Wave Count on CME Futures Chart gives us hint on what level the Price of Bitcoin to bounced once there is another selloff to come this month of May 2021. Based on 8 HR Chart, it can bounce on a price range from $ 39,795.00 to $ 43,370.00. On Elliot Wave Weekly chart, the 0.236 or 23.60% Fibonacci at $ 41,895.00. I think most likely at 23.60% Fibonacci to be a potential bottomed for the price of Bitcoin as EMA 34 is moving above. I think Wave 4 is finished on that level. I know that currently EMA 55 is in confluence with 0.382 or 38.20% Fibonacci now but I think 23.60% is more likely to hold. In the CME Futures Chart: (1) TD Sequential flashes number 9; (2) there is shooting star candle stick; (3) Bearish Convergence on RSI, Stoch RSI & MACD; (4) Bearish Crossover on MACD; (5) RSI failed to hold 70 level but still above 50 level; and (6) Stoch RSI is extremely oversold. Currently, Weekly resistance is at $ 60,350.00 – a level needs to be broken by the bulls. So, Weekly timeframe is making pullback to Moving Averages (either EMA 21 or EMA 34) and Fibonacci (12.00% or 23.60%).

Elliot Wave Counts
Weekly

8 Hour

Bitstamp

CME Futures

In the future, after the pullback – a potential bullish divergence on MACD – Weekly timeframe.

Daily Timeframe
First of all, the SMMA 60 and MA 200 in Daily timeframe of two charts has different value but I’m more interested on the SMMA 60 and MA 200 in Bitstamp Chart – This Moving Average has never been tested since September 2020 and April 2020, respectively. Well, I think this Moving Average is of importance. Currently, bears in control due to bearish convergence but there is a hidden bullish divergence for a potential corrective bounce. I think RSI 50 level is now a strong resistance to watch. Other explanation is in the chart.
Bitstamp