ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro Map

2019년 11월 19일

A timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle:

Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry.

If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside.

Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely).

Good luck those on the buy side.

2019년 11월 21일

노트

Starting to look very good

2019년 11월 28일

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+1.25% today and counting

2019년 12월 30일

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Eyes on the break...