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The Hard Boiled BOIL Bulls could catch a break

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Who says you can't chart 3X leverage?

Got a nice down channel here and about to hit the bottom of the channel.

4.20 at the end of next week would be a nice price.
That would be over a 96% drop from the top. Interestingly, the previous peaks in Nov 2018 and Feb 2014 dropped just over 96% before touching the channel bottom.

Could overshoot below since it overshot out at the top.
Also could bounce early like that small bounce in Dec 2015, before tanking lower and tapping the channel.

Lots of breakout potential in the RSI.

Feeling like there's going to be some crazy times ahead... if things aren't crazy enough.

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BOIL is inching ever close to 4.20 and my channel bottom. Perhaps it has already bottomed at 4.36. Hold on hardboiled bulls, my chart may save you soon!

I'd also like to see NG hit this line, however if it does I believe that BOIL will go lower than 4.20. But I think support should be found this week. Then we can have even higher energy prices and food prices! Yay! Let's go inflation!

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NG tapped my line overnight and currently has the strongest looking reversal candle since Nov 16 on the daily. This tells me that the big boys like the line.
Unfortunately it happened overnight, so we couldn't take advantage in BOIL. BOIL would have for sure went below 4.20 if it happened during trading hours.

30 min is looking like a pullback is wanted, lets see how it does today, but it is looking strong so far!

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Quick update with NG futures tanking in a hardboiled fashion:

I think this move marks the end of the big rally. Went above and beyond my expectations with no big retests at all. I see in the past that these moves can end badly, and this move tonight seems like the beginning.

But now the play for me is to try to find the new bottom and then just sell it back near the previous highs. I've noticed in previous cycles that BOIL likes to play around in horizontal channels for a while before a big move, so I'm going to assume it will do that again until it starts to take out the highs and moves even higher. Ofc, this market is maximum insanity so anything is possible.

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The first target has been reached twice. The market makers might be satisfied enough with this and rally it from here. We'll know for sure tomorrow after they gap up or down 10%...

Daily indicators still look weak on NG so buy at your own peril. I'm not sure if I'm going to buy or not yet. I'd still prefer boil at $4 though for a stress free entry.

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NG has completely filled the gap and so far has bounced at the .618 fib level. This wasn't my next target but it is definitely possible to be a spot where they are satisfied with as it is an area with lots of support that is developed: the gap, the fib level and the orange line.

So I would say as long as NG can stay above 2.31 then it may not reach the next target. I'm largely interested to see what it will do as it hits the resistance in that channel, which could happen next week.

If the orange line is broken then I think the next fib target would be likely reached, the timing to hit that could be Monday morning if it follows the channel.

For these reasons I'm not going to buy BOIL today, I don't like the risk of holding it over the weekend.

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So they were close to opening at the higher target and started selling it off before open so far.

I can't predict what direction it will go, but the reason I picked that target is it is a location that creates max uncertainty for a trader as it opens at resistance: will it break out or sell off? I think MM love to make these setups because it keeps them in control of the price action and the retail trader misses out.

The stoch is looking overbought on hourly so a pullback seems likely. However, I turned on my hull and supertrend and you can see that it has broke the hull but got rejected at the supertrend. When the hull is green, sometimes I use it as a buy target because it can create support. So if NG hits 2.33 area, it could potentially be a good buy, for the day at least.

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Wow there and back again.

I bought BOIL just now with this big drop, that double bottom was too tempting to not jump in.

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There's still an easy possibility for it to got down another 10% though before finding support just to be warned.

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A bit of a frustrating move this morning, mainly because it is doing exactly what I wanted it to do, but I messed up and bought too early. Had I not bought yesterday, I would very excitedly be buying today.

So here's my original marco chart idea and as you can see, BOIL has touched the bottom of the down channel this time. The previous bottom in Feb did not touch it as the market was closed while NG was tanking there. So you would think that now that it tapped it again, it would be a great bounce opportunity. However there are a small number of instances in the past where BOIL has overshot out of the channel.

I think we are in a similar situation to the 2015-16 pattern, just a more rapid one, and we could be at the Feb 2016 second bottom.

This chart also annoys me because I thought it may bounce at the orange line yesterday, but it broke it overnight and went to my next target, tapped the bottom of the channel, and then bounced. So yeah, lesson learned to stick to the damn plan!

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That was a great day! As seen in the comments, I believe this strong move gives good evidence for a big rally to come, hopefully to $6 and beyond. But the next big hurdle is that it has to break out of that down channel tomorrow or risk getting dumped. I charted some possibilities for NG.

You can see that the critical spots to watch are 2.27 and 2.37.
-At 2.27 it would likely be in an area that retests the breakout, so I would want to see a bounce on the retest.
-At 2.37 I would expect resistance from the channel, generally the more it taps the channel the better, the most bearish look is if a candle taps it once and NG gets sold off hard.

So yeah, I don't think tomorrow will be an easy day, the hardboiled algos for sure see this resistance and will have a hay day messing with it.

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A bit of a frustrating and unexpected move this morning with that flash dump. I think it is critical for boil to hold 4.25 and also the blue up trend.

I also noticed a bull flag developing (green) that was temporarily broken. I'm hoping that they are done messing with the bulls and rally it from here. I expect a strong rally after if it can break out of that bull flag, however it could get very ugly if that support line is broken.

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NG has become quite the disappointment and I'm debating to try to time an exit at less losses or maybe even minimal profits. I'm not sure what to do though because the macro chart is still intact, however it is hanging by a thread and if this area breaks, then there could be another 10-20% drawdown on BOIL easily. That is a move I would rather avoid and buy back lower.

I think there are some good setups in the chart for a green tomorrow though that may provide some opportunities to exit or maybe even some confidence to keep holding.

First there's this wedge pattern in NATGAS. In the after hours, you can see that it is forming a nice curve upwards after the break of the resistance. If the curve keeps following it, it could become a short squeeze with a gap up tomorrow.

You can also see the wedge in BOIL colored magenta. BOIL shows lots of other resistance lines that it has to pass to just start to break 4.10 though so there are still lots of hurdles to overcome.

Sorry for the way this trade has gone, I should of took that fake rally on Tues. I saw that it hit resistance and knew it would pull back, but I didn't think it would be this much.

The longer you stay in leverage ETF's that move against you, the more the decay eats away at your position, so I get quite impatient when these kinds of trades don't go my way within a couple days.

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Those charts have panned out, BOIL is gapping right where my arrow ended at 4.10. Now the big question is can BOIL break 4.10? If so, I expect it to get close to 4.30 today before hitting some more resistance.

The other possibility is a gap and crap, which would be an incredibly bearish move. I'd say if BOIL pulls back below 3.97, then it may be done for.

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It's scary how well the MM for NATGAS is at manipulating the price action, like look at this typical bullish ascending triangle pattern:

How does one even compete with this? lol

But on a side note, BOIL got really close to the resistance before it tanked at 4.23. With that following dump, I too was starting to believe it is over. Now they reversed the crap out of it and it looks strong again.

So who the hell knows what will happen, apart from the MM.

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I believe this is a possible scenario that we can see early this week.

There are a lot of mixed bullish and bearish signals, making trading NG quite frustrating atm. Short term, things seem to look more bearish but the larger timeframes, like daily or weekly still look like they can have a nice rally. The larger timeframes can really test your patience though, because the chart can go down another 10%+ or take weeks of consolidation before truly bottoming.

I circled reoccurring stoch signals in this down trend that once again have signaled along with the spike at the top on Friday. So this is something to really have caution over because the last few times it happened NG would go on to make new lows and not revisit those highs again.

However there are some bullish things where this time *could* be different:
-We have a breakout and a possible retest on EOD Friday and it was also the first time it bounced before hitting the support in the down trend.
-We also have that RSI divergence but haven't seen a pop that follows through on the divergence.

Because of all of this, I believe it is probable for NG to get to 2.14 and then bounce, potentially all the way up to 2.32. But it comes with a dangerous condition! This would form a megaphone pattern, which are typically continuation patterns. So it crates a risk that NG will tank from there and make new lows, potentially to $2, if it fulfills the megaphone pattern. Most traders will think this is a safe breakout to chase, meanwhile this pattern could have other ideas for them!

There are of course ways for the chart to negate this megaphone pattern, such as:
-bouncing immediately and not hitting 2.14
-blasting through 2.32 and finding support on the megaphone top
-breaking down though 2.14 and forming support at 2.114 again, making a horizontal channel.
-The final and worst option for bulls is to break 2.114, where then the next support is around 2 and would correlate with the middle channel support.

Anyways, good luck this week, hopefully we can catch a break!

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Sorry I've been silent, I had to take a break from looking at trading view because of the recent price action.

I consider that my final target for NG (the double bottom) was hit this morning at 8:00. The gap up on futures from the contract change messes with the chart a little, but if you move the gap down, you can see 8:00 got pretty close. It bounced well from there and the first good buying interest in a while showed up today, so I think it is valid. Other charts like NATGAS have went beyond a double bottom.

So that is the final line of support for me. If it is broken we solidify the overshoot scenario that I warned about in my first post. Problem with overshoots is you can't tell how far it will overshoot. BOIL could go down over 40% in an overshoot, or it could just be 10%. So if I cut this soon, I probably won't trade NG for a while as it'll be too unpredictable and annoying. This is a Jay Biden market where everything is as broken as possible, so I should have assumed more that the chart would overshoot in these conditions.

This is the 3rd day that the price is under the macro support line I drew for BOIL. This has happened only one other time on the chart back in June 2020 where it was under for 2 days and then gapped up. I've been hoping an event like that would happen but to no avail so far.

They closed BOIL right at resistance, like always, to prep for a gap down. However, I think it is a coin toss for a gap up instead. Still it has a lot of resistance to overcome:
-First that wedge, so we need boil to hold above 3.70 to break that.
-Next is the marco line, which would be at 3.80 atm.
-Then that moving average at 3.85, so 3.80-90 is a tough spot.
-If it can break those, then the shorts will start to get stopped out, the bulls waiting for a breakout will start to chase, and the price could go to 4.20-35 before getting resisted some more.

I may exit at 4.20+ to get out at lesser losses if it happens. IDK yet, it could be considered a big breakout at that point. I was still hoping for a good rally and April is supposed to be a bullish month I've heard. I guess it will depend on the strength.

Even though there was much more buying interest today, it still is much weaker than I hope to see. There was also an equal amount of selling interest too with the way the chart zig-zagged. So this wasn't that strong of a "bottom day" making me uncertain that it is the actual bottom day.

Having conviction that this will pan out has been very rough and my conviction is beaten down a lot the past few days. So I honestly don't know what will happen here on out and feel quite exhausted by the whole ordeal, which is ironic, since it is doing a lot of the things I originally warned about. I guess I should take my own warnings more seriously?

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Well I'm out folks. You could say I got boiled... hard.
Good luck to the rest of you.

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Little update here on what I'm seeing since being out:

I noticed a very similar pattern to Feb developing right now. I originally thought this would be too obvious to happen again, but with the break today it makes this more likely to repeat. If futures can stay above the horizontal support at then this projected pattern could be considered invalid.

I'm also trying out these SMI indicators by andre_007. It showed some divergence in Feb before the big rally as the price got a big dump. I'm looking for a similar divergence this round too and then a buy signal in the upper indicator would help confirm. The lower indicator is already more oversold than in Feb so it could pan out differently because of that.

These two indicators are also really great at giving sell signals as you can see with the red dots. The signals get more reliable the farther they are from the midline.

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(Don't know why Trading view changed it to HKEX:2 but it is supposed to say $2.00)

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I got in BOIL just now in premarket at 2.90. Probably only looking for 10-20% gain.

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That was a bad entry so I sold at breakeven just now.