BTCUSD: Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate

Bitcoin has now entered the accumulation phase between the 2 & 4 Year MA's, represented by the 730 & 1460 MA's. As highlighted in green, this investment strategy has historically been the best tie to accumulate BTC for the long-term 4-year cycle, for 2014/2015, as well as 2018/2019.

The forecasted extrapolation is merely an example of where the price may consolidate in the coming months, but is far from a price target. The reference here is the accumulation phase is currently between $4650 and $7750, which may last only a matter of weeks, but historically lasts for a considerable amount of time, such as in 2014-2015 where there was an 11-month period of price consolidation and therefore accumulation.

Time to BTFD.

Related bearish shorter-term analysis confirming lower lows to come:

Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

Also see Parts of Bitcoin repeating history TA series for bearish analysis:

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Here's a closer look at how price is currently moving in a similar way to the Winter 2014 breakdown.

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We just got rejected by the 2 Year MA with perfect precision.

The purple line I added is the 1 Year MA (as someone on bct suggested to include):

Notice how the bull-run accelerated when we broke through this MA to the upside in 2015 and 2019. To me, this confirms that breaking below this MA would likely accelerate the sell-off towards the 4 Year MA.

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Something different is happening. We haven't continued to capitulated since breaking the 2 Year MA, as we did twice before within a week. Instead we've spent 2 weeks underneath this level without further downside.

Is this bullish? Arguably yes, however the bullish scenario here was the anticipation of a dip buying scenario and history repeating itself for the third time. Without history repeating itself, it throws this fractal out the window effectively.

Still awaiting for further downside for the bullish scenario dip buying scenario to remain in tact.

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I've guesstimating a 75% probability that we won't go lower than $4,500.
Otherwise a 25% chance it's the bottom.
Reference: twitter.com/DragonOn.../1206893152336011265

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2 Year MA confirmed as resistance with third rejection:

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Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 Years: