Again I see BTC's history divided into growth channels. Here a pitchfan analysis. The lines of the fan correspond to Fibonacci ratios 0, 0.5, 1 (turquoise) and 1.5 (red).
A third option is that we don't find support at all and fall straight into the lower channel as we did in 2014.
Just a note: if we do lose the channel in 2018 then it doesn't necessarily mean net negative growth for 2019. Compare what happened after rejection in 2012 to what happened in 2014. However the acute angles (or gradient) of the pitchfan lines are becoming smaller making a path like 2012 less likely in my opinion.
- The exact bottom of the current channel (here the right fib ratio 1 line) is unknown, but it was drawn such that it gave the other lines a best fit.
- I feel we will get support on this line or bounce very close to it. This could be by moving sideways or dropping quickly then bouncing.
- If we get support I see two options: either we start a 2018 bullrun and lose channel support in 2019 or we make a failed high and lose channel support this year. At present I don't know which is more likely.
A third option is that we don't find support at all and fall straight into the lower channel as we did in 2014.
Just a note: if we do lose the channel in 2018 then it doesn't necessarily mean net negative growth for 2019. Compare what happened after rejection in 2012 to what happened in 2014. However the acute angles (or gradient) of the pitchfan lines are becoming smaller making a path like 2012 less likely in my opinion.
코멘트:
Lol update already. I think it's very possible looking at the history that 2019 to 2020/21 could be net negative growth, if the previous alternating pattern holds.
