BTC 4-Year Cycle, Zoomed Out Monthly LOG Chart

2022년 1월 1일

Contrary to what most people in the crypto space believe, Bitcoin began its bull market back on December 15, 2018 when price bottomed in the $3,200 area. It was assumed by analysts and myself that the cycle top would occur after roughly 3 years, which would have been during December 2021.

Bitcoin had to endure two "black swan" type events throughout this bull market uptrend;
1.) March 2020 Global Liquidity Crisis
2.) China Mining Ban/Hash Rate Redistribution (May 2021)

More recently, Bitcoin had to weather through concerns about the new variant, which caused another sell-off on December 4, 2021.

Between the China mining ban (May 2021) and the Omicron variant concerns (early Dec 2021), Bitcoin has miraculously formed a "hidden divergence" in the monthly RSI.

Important to note that a hidden divergence is different than a regular divergence. A hidden divergence forms when a technical indicator, such as the RSI, forms a new low, but the price of the asset forms a new high instead. This typically indicates that the current trend is still valid and underlying strength and accumulation by long term holders has been maintained.

The RSI dropped from 60.21 down to 59.59 during a span of roughly 182 days, while the price rose from $28,915 to $42,640, forming the hidden divergence.

Due to the speedbumps mentioned above, Bitcoin's uptrend could easily last 3.5 years instead of the typical 3 years. If a 3.5 year uptrend occurs from the December 15, 2018 bottom, the cycle top would occur around June 15, 2022.

The hidden divergence seen on the monthly chart may be the only evidence we need to understand that the best of this 4-year cycle has yet to come. Buckle up for the ride!