BTC won't go higher than $4200 yet

2019년 3월 13일

This is how I see Bitcoin evolving in the next few months. This analysis is purely based on similarities with the 2014-2015 bear market.

I remember back in June 2018 I saw in a crypto conference a woman (sorry forgot her name) at the head of a managing fund firm mentioning that 6k was unlikely the bottom and that Wall Street would push the price down to 3k to reach the 200 weekly. Her company invested in bitcoin right at the best time after the 2014-15 bear market and existed around 15k...
It is interesting to see that at that time not many people dared to say Bitcoin could go to $1000. Now it seems like a reality, even the ultra bullish like Tom Lee who was still predicting Bitcoin at 15k by the end of 2018 is now predicting sub $2500. Even Mike Novogratz thinks we could go to $1000. If Bitcoin does that, that would simply be so amazing! For that reason alone I think the likeness is small.

For me the key aspect is the average mining price of Bitcoin in China ($3000 USD) as they hold around 70% of the mining power.

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more" Satoshi N. 2010

That is why I think we could have a potential bottom but at the same time I think it will take until 2019 to see prices close to 6k again.