Stock Selection: How to Tip the Tailwinds in Your Favour
Stock selection is a game of fine margins but understanding a few key factors can tilt the probability of success in your favour. By focusing on these crucial elements, you can ensure that when it comes to buying stocks, you’re sailing with the prevailing tailwinds rather than fighting against them.
1. Don’t Fight the Market
Ever heard the saying, “a rising tide lifts all ships”? This holds true in the stock market. Favourable market conditions can make an average investor look like Warren Buffett. When the market is stable, it allows other factors to shine, while a risk-averse environment can dampen even the best stock’s performance.
Don’t overthink this concept—use simple moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day, when analysing the index. Pair this with basic structure analysis to assess overall market conditions. Ask yourself: What is the long-term trend in the index? What is the current momentum? What does the price structure look like? The better the market conditions, the more aggressive you can be in your stock selection, as the broad tailwinds are stronger.
Example: FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 index has been navigating a choppy sideways range since May, but there are still signs of optimism beneath the surface. While we’re not in a full-blown bull market, the 50-day moving average (50MA) remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average (200MA), and both are sloping upwards—indicating a long-term uptrend. Prices are currently hovering near the 50MA, suggesting the market’s tailwinds remain mildly favorable, even amidst some volatility.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Earnings Catalysts: The Power of Post-Earnings Drift
Positive earnings surprises can work wonders for any stock. They often create price gaps that signal strong short-term momentum. Moreover, positive earnings surprises can take time to be fully ‘priced in’ because large institutional investors typically stagger their investments over time. This phenomenon, known as post-earnings announcement drift, can lead to continued price appreciation following an earnings beat.
Look for stocks that have recent positive fundamental catalysts in their price history. This focus can give you a clearer path toward potential gains.
Example: Barclays (BARC)
In February, Barclays revealed a strategic plan that reignited investor confidence and sparked a sharp breakout in its share price. The bank announced a £10 billion buyback program, coupled with £2 billion in cost cuts, aiming to boost profitability and efficiency. Barclays also set its sights on delivering returns in excess of 12% by 2026, with a renewed focus on its higher-margin UK consumer and business lending divisions. This announcement acted as a major earnings catalyst, forming the foundation for a strong uptrend that followed.
BARC Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. The Buyback Bounce: Share Buybacks
Companies that initiate share buybacks signal confidence in their stock and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the total number of outstanding shares, often resulting in an increase in earnings per share (EPS) and potentially boosting the stock price.
While this isn’t an exact science, a stock undergoing a share buyback that meets the other criteria on this list can provide a solid tailwind for your investment.
Example: Mastercard Incorporated (MA.)
In the second quarter of 2024, Mastercard repurchased approximately 5.8 million shares for $2.6 billion. Through the first half of 2024, the company bought back 10.2 million shares at a total cost of $4.6 billion. As of July 26, 2024, MA had repurchased an additional 1.9 million shares for $820 million, leaving $8.7 billion remaining under its approved share repurchase programs. These strategic buybacks not only reflect Mastercard's strong cash generation capabilities but also underline its commitment to enhancing shareholder value, making it an attractive consideration for investors seeking growth.
MA. Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
4. Focus on Financial Quality
When hunting for stocks, there’s often a tendency to bargain hunt, looking for those poised for a bounce. However, we believe that, over the long term, high-quality companies are best positioned to outperform the market. You don’t have to be a Wall Street analyst to develop a robust quality filter. The following financial metrics can help ensure that the stock you’re buying is solid and less likely to face dilution:
• Return on Equity (ROE): Most companies will claim they are high-quality businesses that prioritize investors, but checking this metric helps verify their claims. A high ROE of 15% or more indicates efficient use of equity and a commitment to shareholder value.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF): Cash is king for a good reason. Strong free cash flow means the company generates ample cash after covering its operational expenses, allowing for reinvestment or returns to shareholders. A FCF yield of 5% or higher is typically desirable.
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: While balance sheet strength may sound boring, it’s crucial. A low debt-to-equity ratio, ideally below 1.0, suggests a company is not overly reliant on debt to fuel growth, making it less vulnerable in downturns.
Example: Morgan Sindall (MGNS)
With a Return on Equity (ROE) of 22.7%, Morgan Sindall significantly exceeds the 15% benchmark, showcasing effective management and strong profitability. Its Free Cash Flow yield is an impressive 10.81%, well above the desirable 5%, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities. Furthermore, the company boasts a negative Debt-to-Equity ratio of -0.49, highlighting a strong balance sheet with no net debt and low financial risk. These qualities are also evident in its strong price chart (see below).
MGNS Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
5. Long-Term Trend Structure
Just as analysing the strength of the overall market can create headwinds and tailwinds, you should also be mindful of a stock's price history and calibrate your expectations accordingly. An old adage that has stood the test of time is, “trends take considerable time and effort to change.” This doesn’t mean you should buy stocks that have undergone prolonged underperformance, but it does mean you should be cautious and aware of a stock’s long-term trend when making decisions.
Example: Marathon (MARA Holdings)
A quick look at Marathon’s daily chart shows prices oscillating around the 200-day moving average, indicating a period of indecision. The trend lacks clear direction, with momentum appearing tepid at best. Given the uncertainty, investors should be cautious about taking trend continuation or momentum trades here until a clearer signal emerges.
MAR Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
When it comes to stock selection, leveraging favourable market conditions, earnings catalysts, share buybacks, financial quality, and trend structures can enhance your investment strategy. By aligning your selections with these key factors, you can tip the tailwinds in your favour and increase your chances of success in the ever-evolving stock market.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
1. Don’t Fight the Market
Ever heard the saying, “a rising tide lifts all ships”? This holds true in the stock market. Favourable market conditions can make an average investor look like Warren Buffett. When the market is stable, it allows other factors to shine, while a risk-averse environment can dampen even the best stock’s performance.
Don’t overthink this concept—use simple moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day, when analysing the index. Pair this with basic structure analysis to assess overall market conditions. Ask yourself: What is the long-term trend in the index? What is the current momentum? What does the price structure look like? The better the market conditions, the more aggressive you can be in your stock selection, as the broad tailwinds are stronger.
Example: FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 index has been navigating a choppy sideways range since May, but there are still signs of optimism beneath the surface. While we’re not in a full-blown bull market, the 50-day moving average (50MA) remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average (200MA), and both are sloping upwards—indicating a long-term uptrend. Prices are currently hovering near the 50MA, suggesting the market’s tailwinds remain mildly favorable, even amidst some volatility.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Earnings Catalysts: The Power of Post-Earnings Drift
Positive earnings surprises can work wonders for any stock. They often create price gaps that signal strong short-term momentum. Moreover, positive earnings surprises can take time to be fully ‘priced in’ because large institutional investors typically stagger their investments over time. This phenomenon, known as post-earnings announcement drift, can lead to continued price appreciation following an earnings beat.
Look for stocks that have recent positive fundamental catalysts in their price history. This focus can give you a clearer path toward potential gains.
Example: Barclays (BARC)
In February, Barclays revealed a strategic plan that reignited investor confidence and sparked a sharp breakout in its share price. The bank announced a £10 billion buyback program, coupled with £2 billion in cost cuts, aiming to boost profitability and efficiency. Barclays also set its sights on delivering returns in excess of 12% by 2026, with a renewed focus on its higher-margin UK consumer and business lending divisions. This announcement acted as a major earnings catalyst, forming the foundation for a strong uptrend that followed.
BARC Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. The Buyback Bounce: Share Buybacks
Companies that initiate share buybacks signal confidence in their stock and a commitment to returning value to shareholders. When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the total number of outstanding shares, often resulting in an increase in earnings per share (EPS) and potentially boosting the stock price.
While this isn’t an exact science, a stock undergoing a share buyback that meets the other criteria on this list can provide a solid tailwind for your investment.
Example: Mastercard Incorporated (MA.)
In the second quarter of 2024, Mastercard repurchased approximately 5.8 million shares for $2.6 billion. Through the first half of 2024, the company bought back 10.2 million shares at a total cost of $4.6 billion. As of July 26, 2024, MA had repurchased an additional 1.9 million shares for $820 million, leaving $8.7 billion remaining under its approved share repurchase programs. These strategic buybacks not only reflect Mastercard's strong cash generation capabilities but also underline its commitment to enhancing shareholder value, making it an attractive consideration for investors seeking growth.
MA. Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
4. Focus on Financial Quality
When hunting for stocks, there’s often a tendency to bargain hunt, looking for those poised for a bounce. However, we believe that, over the long term, high-quality companies are best positioned to outperform the market. You don’t have to be a Wall Street analyst to develop a robust quality filter. The following financial metrics can help ensure that the stock you’re buying is solid and less likely to face dilution:
• Return on Equity (ROE): Most companies will claim they are high-quality businesses that prioritize investors, but checking this metric helps verify their claims. A high ROE of 15% or more indicates efficient use of equity and a commitment to shareholder value.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF): Cash is king for a good reason. Strong free cash flow means the company generates ample cash after covering its operational expenses, allowing for reinvestment or returns to shareholders. A FCF yield of 5% or higher is typically desirable.
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio: While balance sheet strength may sound boring, it’s crucial. A low debt-to-equity ratio, ideally below 1.0, suggests a company is not overly reliant on debt to fuel growth, making it less vulnerable in downturns.
Example: Morgan Sindall (MGNS)
With a Return on Equity (ROE) of 22.7%, Morgan Sindall significantly exceeds the 15% benchmark, showcasing effective management and strong profitability. Its Free Cash Flow yield is an impressive 10.81%, well above the desirable 5%, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities. Furthermore, the company boasts a negative Debt-to-Equity ratio of -0.49, highlighting a strong balance sheet with no net debt and low financial risk. These qualities are also evident in its strong price chart (see below).
MGNS Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
5. Long-Term Trend Structure
Just as analysing the strength of the overall market can create headwinds and tailwinds, you should also be mindful of a stock's price history and calibrate your expectations accordingly. An old adage that has stood the test of time is, “trends take considerable time and effort to change.” This doesn’t mean you should buy stocks that have undergone prolonged underperformance, but it does mean you should be cautious and aware of a stock’s long-term trend when making decisions.
Example: Marathon (MARA Holdings)
A quick look at Marathon’s daily chart shows prices oscillating around the 200-day moving average, indicating a period of indecision. The trend lacks clear direction, with momentum appearing tepid at best. Given the uncertainty, investors should be cautious about taking trend continuation or momentum trades here until a clearer signal emerges.
MAR Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
When it comes to stock selection, leveraging favourable market conditions, earnings catalysts, share buybacks, financial quality, and trend structures can enhance your investment strategy. By aligning your selections with these key factors, you can tip the tailwinds in your favour and increase your chances of success in the ever-evolving stock market.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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