PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 DEC 2022 Expiry
Had a real eventful expiry today, with almost a 500+ pts fall from 14.20 to close. Yesterday we discussed about a roof like pattern formed intraday - read here. And today's price move was in continuation of that trend.
Yesterday the handover from US markets were not that positive - but even in bad times our markets has outperformed the global peers. So most of the traders would not have anticipated or planned for the deep cut today.
Technically bank nifty only gave away 1.32% today, off which 1.15% coming in the last 1 hour. Till then bank nifty was outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT by a great deal.
The reason for the fall? Most of it has to be because of the hawkish comments from US FED chair Powell yesterday. The interest rate hike was 50bps and the market had taken that quite well - its his speech that the markets did not like.
As i write this, SPX has opened lower and is trading with a cut of 1.52%, just below the resistance line of 3945. The next support is at 3813 - quite some distance to go if the fall is to continue.
Coming back to our markets, bank nifty opened at 43940 a gap down but not that deep, and then recovered and was trading positively. The first leg of the fall came at 11.15 till 12.30 - a fall of only 0.5%. And then BN was trading in a range till 14.15 after which the brutal fall of 1.15% came in.
Today's fall has no real impact on the bank nifty's hourly or daily chart because of the huge run up it had in the previous sessions. But if the supports are getting taken out - then we will look at taking bearish bets.
Much of today's move would have come out of long unwinding too, because of expiry and also because 44000 to 43800 level was breached and it would have triggered a small panic.
---
Of the bank nifty components -
HDFC Bk started higher, made an intraday top at 09.55 and then started falling, the 2nd leg of fall 14.15 to close was pretty brutal.
ICICI had started the day negatively and never went above water today - again a noticeable fall from 14.15 to close
SBI had a very strong opening candle and then it started falling from there. The first leg of fall was much brutal than its 2nd leg much contrary to the pattern of HDFC and ICICI
Axis was in fact in green at 14.10, but the selling momentum created a strong cut of 12pts in the last 75mts
Kotak had a big wick'd red opening candle. The first leg of fall till 11.25. The 2nd leg from 14.25 to close. The 10mts candle formed at 15.15 itself took out 0.5%
IndusInd was continuing from yesterday's trend, made a HOD at 09.45 and then an uniform fall till close.
The last 60 to 75 minutes of today's trade saw huge unwinding in many major banks. Again this could be profit bookings or a positional trade due to expiry today.
---
Today's selling is clearly visible on the 15mts TF, even though 1hr shows it - it may not mean anything until 43255 support is taken out.
Yesterday the handover from US markets were not that positive - but even in bad times our markets has outperformed the global peers. So most of the traders would not have anticipated or planned for the deep cut today.
Technically bank nifty only gave away 1.32% today, off which 1.15% coming in the last 1 hour. Till then bank nifty was outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT by a great deal.
The reason for the fall? Most of it has to be because of the hawkish comments from US FED chair Powell yesterday. The interest rate hike was 50bps and the market had taken that quite well - its his speech that the markets did not like.
As i write this, SPX has opened lower and is trading with a cut of 1.52%, just below the resistance line of 3945. The next support is at 3813 - quite some distance to go if the fall is to continue.
Coming back to our markets, bank nifty opened at 43940 a gap down but not that deep, and then recovered and was trading positively. The first leg of the fall came at 11.15 till 12.30 - a fall of only 0.5%. And then BN was trading in a range till 14.15 after which the brutal fall of 1.15% came in.
Today's fall has no real impact on the bank nifty's hourly or daily chart because of the huge run up it had in the previous sessions. But if the supports are getting taken out - then we will look at taking bearish bets.
Much of today's move would have come out of long unwinding too, because of expiry and also because 44000 to 43800 level was breached and it would have triggered a small panic.
---
Of the bank nifty components -
HDFC Bk started higher, made an intraday top at 09.55 and then started falling, the 2nd leg of fall 14.15 to close was pretty brutal.
ICICI had started the day negatively and never went above water today - again a noticeable fall from 14.15 to close
SBI had a very strong opening candle and then it started falling from there. The first leg of fall was much brutal than its 2nd leg much contrary to the pattern of HDFC and ICICI
Axis was in fact in green at 14.10, but the selling momentum created a strong cut of 12pts in the last 75mts
Kotak had a big wick'd red opening candle. The first leg of fall till 11.25. The 2nd leg from 14.25 to close. The 10mts candle formed at 15.15 itself took out 0.5%
IndusInd was continuing from yesterday's trend, made a HOD at 09.45 and then an uniform fall till close.
The last 60 to 75 minutes of today's trade saw huge unwinding in many major banks. Again this could be profit bookings or a positional trade due to expiry today.
---
Today's selling is clearly visible on the 15mts TF, even though 1hr shows it - it may not mean anything until 43255 support is taken out.
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