Alibaba May Have Downside Risk

2023년 9월 26일

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba had a big drop about two years ago. Now, after a long period of consolidation, the bears may look to return.

The first pattern on today’s chart is the combination of the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They’ve mostly drifted sideways since March. The faster SMA has attempted “Golden Crosses” above the slower SMA twice, but failed to hold. That may confirm the longer-term downtrend remains in effect.

Second, BABA peaked near $126 in July 2022 and never reclaimed that level. Lower highs occurred each subsequent half-year (in late January and late July). This differs from the performance of the Nasdaq-100, which remains above its high from the summer of last year.

Third, a triangle has formed since last October. Prices are now at risk of breaking the bottom of that pattern, which may result in a move toward the 52-week low.

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