BABA | Long | Strong AI & Seasonality Tailwinds (July 2025)

BABA | Long | Strong AI & Seasonality Tailwinds (Aug 2025)

1️⃣ Quick Insight: Alibaba is showing strong AI-driven momentum, healthy fundamentals, and positive seasonality patterns. August–December tends to be bullish, and the stock is already holding up well despite recent dips.

2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Current price zone (~$123)
Stop Loss: $87
Take Profits:

TP1: $131

TP2: $143

TP3: $177

TP4: $206

TP5: $217

TP6: $257

Extended Target: $300 (if momentum holds through the parallel channel)

3️⃣ Key Notes:
Alibaba’s fundamentals remain solid with revenue up on a yearly basis since 2021, even though some quarters have shown pressure. EPS is expected to grow annually, and institutional interest is strong (43% holding increase by Maridea Wealth Management). The AI pivot with Qwen LLM models and Quark AI glasses launch could be major catalysts. Seasonality supports upside through mid-December before potential reversals.

4️⃣ What to Watch:

AI & cloud revenue performance (Qwen adoption)

Cainiao and other potential spinoff IPOs

Regulatory updates and U.S.-China tensions

Seasonal strength: historically bullish until late November–early December

📊 Outlook: Analysts forecast $150–$160 in the next 12 months (~20–30% upside). Bull case targets range $200–$250 over 3–5 years, with potential extension if AI & international commerce expansions deliver.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.