AVAX: The Calm Before the Squeeze Storm

8월 26일

Context: Price has been retracing most of the move since the impulsive leg from Fri 22nd. I think AVAX is setting up for something big.

Perp Futures (1H)

• Aggregated OI – COIN-margined: trending up heavily
  
• Aggregated OI – Stablecoin-margined: trending down
  

What this means:
This divergence leans bullish. Rising coin-margined OI suggests risk-on players/strong hands are accumulating (often opening longs collateralized in AVAX). Falling stablecoin-margined OI points to retail de-risking/closing, so the drop isn’t accompanied by growing short interest. That’s a classic bottoming / squeeze setup if momentum flips.

Entry Zone (confluence)

• Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65) from A→B as the base of the zone.
  
• Confluence with the HTF Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) and the lower band of the LTF AVWAP (I kept only the HTF band on the chart for clarity).
  
• We also have a LVN / Single Print at ~$30.
  
• The trend-based Fib extension puts the projection needing a retrace to ~$22.80 for the math to line up—this is also the LTF 0.886 and completes a local harmonic.
  

Net: A lot of math + structure confluence at the blue box.

Entry Strategy


High chance we get a Swing Fail / stop-run into the lower edge of the band.
My entry = reclaim of the green line inside the blue box after the sweep (confirmation).
Could it go without the sweep? Yes—but I prefer the sweep to print divergence (RSI/CVD) before triggering.

Targets

Scale out on the way up: 0.618 → 1.0 → 1.272 → 1.618. The 1.618 aligns precisely with the $30 single print, so that’s a key take-profit / reaction level.

Invalidation

• Structure: Idea is invalid on acceptance below the blue box. For me that’s a 1H close below ~$22.80 and failure to reclaim on the next candle.
  
• Hard stop: below the sweep low of the blue box (give room for a wick; if we accept below, I’m out).
  
• Flow tell: If coin-margined OI rolls over while stablecoin-margined OI rises (risk-off flip) into the drop, I stand aside.
  
• If invalidated, watch the next magnets (downside 2.0/2.618 extensions or the next LVN).
  

Note: Losing these key levels can trigger a liquidation cascade—coin-margined longs are extra sensitive when price drops (collateral + position). Manage risk accordingly.

That’s my plan: Blue-box reclaim → ride the squeeze into $30 SP (1.618) with staged profits and tight invalidation below the box.

8월 26일

노트

Check the Open Interest Divergence here: ibb.co/HLHJrMhQ

8월 26일

노트

A SFP (Swing Fail Pattern) Would most likely go towards the $20.00 level to **** all the longs, before spiking back up.

8월 26일

노트

Last note correction: 22$ is what i mean :)

9월 1일

액티브 트레이드

Price is now within the blue box. Look for longs here. OI has spiked last night, shorts have been building up heavily. If price goes up now, those shorts become trapped and squeeze fuel is created.

9월 10일

노트

The Weak High has been eaten! What a beautiful trade.

9월 11일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Pixel Perfect Trade. Reached the Target. GGS.