Flat on Aussie this morning...

2017년 10월 13일

The commodity currency gravitated higher for a third consecutive day on Thursday, clocking a high of 0.7836. From our technical perspective, this recent surge in buying is likely due to weekly price trading from within the walls of a support area pegged at 0.7849-0.7752. For all that though, weekly buyers may start to feel the pinch today/next week. On the H4 timeframe, the candles are currently seen capped by October’s opening level at 0.7834, while over on the daily timeframe price is seen hugging the underside of a supply drawn from 0.7875-0.7834.

Suggestions: In our book, this is a limited market. To the upside, we not only have the noted resistances on both the daily and H4 timeframes to contend with, we also have a H4 mid-level resistance lurking just above at 0.7850. Therefore, to long this market based on where weekly price is trading from would be a minefield! To the downside, a selloff to the 0.78 handle may be on the cards given the resistances offered on both H4/daily timeframes. Unfortunately, a sell from here would provide a meager 34 pips to play with, and at the same time would have you selling into potential weekly flow.

Not the best of odds on either side this morning!

Data points to consider: RBA Financial stanbility review at 1.30; Chinese Trade balance (tentative); US Inflation figures and retail sales figures at 1.30pm; US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment at 3pm; FOMC member Evans speaks at 3.25pm; FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 4.30pm GMT+1.