AUD/USD: Technical outlook and review.

2014년 8월 18일

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Price is still frustratingly trading within a weekly consolidation area with the upper limits seen at 0.94600, and the lower at 0.92046, with no signs of a break happening just yet.

• Daily TF: Price still remains caught trading between the daily demand area 0.92046-0.92354, and a daily decision-point level at 0.93529. A break above could see prices test daily supply at 0.94729-0.94175, conversely, a break below will likely see a push south towards a daily R/S flip level at 0.91323. Let’s also not forget, if a break below is indeed seen, this would effectively mean that price has broken below the weekly consolidation area (levels above) as well.

The market opened at 0.93103, and the overall direction so far has been north. One thing to mention before continuing is the green trendline, most who follow us will know what it means already by now, but for those new, all it likely means is pro money are consuming small demand pockets as price is rallying, thus clearing the path south for the sellers.

For the time being, active sell orders around a 4hr minor supply area at 0.93226-0.93333 seem to be keeping price from rallying. If we see a close above this 4hr supply area, we can likely expect price to at least trade to the level of 4hr supply marked with a green flag at 0.93529 (prominent daily decision-point level – take a look on the daily chart), which is the only level stopping price from hitting our third and final take-profit target at 0.93728 (active long position from 0.92417). However, if we see a push/spike below the round number down to the 4hr R/S flip level at 0.92815, this would likely fill our pending buy order set just above at 0.92857, and allow pro money to collect more liquidity to push higher (traders who are already long from the round number, their stops will be either just below or set at breakeven by now, once these stops are triggered, they become sell orders = liquidity for pro money to buy into. Also, there will be a lot of breakout sellers selling if a close below is seen, thus handing over more sell orders to pro money).

So, for the time being it is a waiting game for us on this pair!

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the 4hr decision-point level (0.92384) at 0.92417 is now active. Our second take-profit target has recently been hit at 0.93, so do keep an eye out for our third and final take-profit target set at 0.93728.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above a minor 4hr R/S flip level (0.92815) at 0.92857. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is simply because the buyers pushed off nicely from this level, and consumed what appears to be most of the sellers around the high marked with a circle at 0.93185 possibly clearing the path north, so if price does indeed return to this area, a first-time reaction is very much expected.
• No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.92417 (Active) (SL: 0.92228 TP: [1] 0.92815 [2] 0.93 [3] 0.93728) 0.92857 (SL: 0.92700 TP: Dependent on how price approaches the area). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels seen in the current market environment.