AUDUSD Update

2022년 7월 2일

AUDUSD has made a break of support at .6830 on the first day of trading in July 2022. What's next ?

First of all, what is relevant up to now

We need to consider price movement (wave structure) and time (cyclic structure).

1. First Leg Down - There is an I wave (5 subwaves) from 5th April to 12th May swing low. Price drops 836 pips over 27 candles.

2. Rally - There is another I wave to 3rd June for the new swing high. Price rises 460 pips (Fib retracement .55 level ) over 16 candles.

3. Second Leg Down - This looks more like an N wave developing.


So what is next ?

Making an assumption that the past repeats we can project time

a. Time - based upon an interval of 27 candles , next swing low may take place on the 12th July 2022.

b. Price- possibilities could be

i. Equal Fib Expansion + Support Zone - this is an area between the past support zone of 2019/2020 and current Fib Extension 1. Price between .6640 - 6675.

ii. N Wave Expansion - also seen as AB=CD. This would put price lower at .6450 and closer to the Fib Extension 1.382.


Markets breath in and out. It is not unreasonable that a lower swing high is established thereafter

a. Time - based upon an interval of 16 candles, the next swing high could take place in early August 2022.

b. Price - based upon a Fibonacci Retracement at .55 level = price looks back at .7000.