H1 ascending triangle trades against HTF supply
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance, together with May’s run higher has, as you can see, landed price at the door of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Buyers and sellers spent the best part of the week squaring off around the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6654.
However, Friday eked out a modest gain, taking the pair to highs at 0.6683 and shining light on channel resistance (0.6557), a line intersecting closely with supply at 0.6777/0.6736.
Also of note is the RSI nearing overbought territory.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Addressing both supply at 0.6695/0.6664 and an area of support derived from 0.6528/0.6583 last week, this could force a range into motion should a dip back to 0.6528/0.6583 form.
What’s interesting here is the aforesaid supply is glued to the lower limit of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664.
Breaking higher faces supply from 0.6764/0.6738, essentially denoting a similar range to daily supply at 0.6777/0.6736.
H1 timeframe:
Since Wednesday, short-term technicals have been in the process of building an ascending triangle pattern between 0.6675 and 0.6567, regarded as a continuation pattern. The take-profit target, assuming a breakout to the upside, is measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (yellow), seen at 0.6785 – a touch above daily supply.
Above the pattern, nevertheless, buyers face possible opposition off 0.67.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 is a notable base in this market, one which will likely spark a move lower. After crossing the 200-day simple moving average on the daily timeframe, though, this could have price close in on supply at 0.6777/0.6736 before sellers make a show.
Short-term:
While H4 supply at 0.6695/0.6664 may contain upside attempts, the formation of a H1 ascending triangle will interest buyers this week, particularly if a H1 close outside of the pattern forms. However, buyers must then contend with the 0.67 handle and H4, daily and monthly supplies. Therefore, a breakout of the ascending triangle is unlikely to reach target.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April’s 370-pip advance, together with May’s run higher has, as you can see, landed price at the door of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Buyers and sellers spent the best part of the week squaring off around the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6654.
However, Friday eked out a modest gain, taking the pair to highs at 0.6683 and shining light on channel resistance (0.6557), a line intersecting closely with supply at 0.6777/0.6736.
Also of note is the RSI nearing overbought territory.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Addressing both supply at 0.6695/0.6664 and an area of support derived from 0.6528/0.6583 last week, this could force a range into motion should a dip back to 0.6528/0.6583 form.
What’s interesting here is the aforesaid supply is glued to the lower limit of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664.
Breaking higher faces supply from 0.6764/0.6738, essentially denoting a similar range to daily supply at 0.6777/0.6736.
H1 timeframe:
Since Wednesday, short-term technicals have been in the process of building an ascending triangle pattern between 0.6675 and 0.6567, regarded as a continuation pattern. The take-profit target, assuming a breakout to the upside, is measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (yellow), seen at 0.6785 – a touch above daily supply.
Above the pattern, nevertheless, buyers face possible opposition off 0.67.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 is a notable base in this market, one which will likely spark a move lower. After crossing the 200-day simple moving average on the daily timeframe, though, this could have price close in on supply at 0.6777/0.6736 before sellers make a show.
Short-term:
While H4 supply at 0.6695/0.6664 may contain upside attempts, the formation of a H1 ascending triangle will interest buyers this week, particularly if a H1 close outside of the pattern forms. However, buyers must then contend with the 0.67 handle and H4, daily and monthly supplies. Therefore, a breakout of the ascending triangle is unlikely to reach target.
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