H4 bullish pennant pattern about ready to pop?

2020년 7월 1일

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May’s extension, as well as June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone at the moment, particularly as long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.

Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis -

After June 11 overpowered support at 0.6931, the base proved itself as a resistance throughout the month.

Following a period of hesitation, AUD/USD bulls made an entrance Tuesday, with Wednesday swinging 0.6931 back into action.

In case of a break to the upside, two trendline resistances inhabit territory close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671). Support at 0.6755 also remains in position to the downside, with a break shedding light on the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6666, a dynamic value in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.

H4 timeframe:

Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of forming a potential pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern.

Outside of the aforesaid configuration, demand at 0.6773/0.6814 is in sight. Traders will note this area also aligns with a 38.2% Fib level at 0.6808. To the upside, we have supply visible at 0.7058/0.7029.

H1 timeframe:

Following a dip to 0.6877, just ahead of the 100-period simple moving average, the pair clawed back lost ground and regained a footing above 0.69. US trading probed nearby supply at 0.6948/0.6935, shaped by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern (a bearish signal).

0.69, joined closely with trendline support (0.6832), therefore, represents near-term support going into Thursday’s session.

Structures of Interest:

According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above the trendline resistance. In addition to this, daily sellers appear ready to retake resistance at 0.6931. A notable H4 close north of the bullish pennant pattern may help confirm upside on the higher timeframes.

As for the H1 timeframe, intraday traders are likely zeroing in on 0.69 as possible support, particularly at the point the level unites with trendline support.