AUDUSD and Commodity Prices
업데이트됨
Fundamentals:
Australia's exports are, mainly, iron ore, coal, petroleum gas, gold , and frozen bovine meat (4% and above total exports; especially iron ore and other ores (>20% of total exports). They also export inorganic materials, wheat and cereal, but this is less than 2% of total exports. Anything 4% and above is more significant. Australia's largest trade in exports with China, Japan, South Korea, United States, and India.
The USD has seen strength and will continue to see strength in the near-term as the yield spread continues to favor a strong dollar.
Drought in Argentina (informed by a close friend in Argentina)
"Drought in US soil as of April 19, 2022 46.35% of the US and 55.38% of the lower 48 states are in drought. Acres of crops in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions."
drought.gov/current-conditions
Demand from China has risen due to China's desire to urbanize its peasant farmers and the rest of their populace. Also, China's local producers have been severely impacted by China's zero covid policy. The country needs to import food as a result.
The EU will use biofuel as a replacement of gas from Russia.
Looking at this list and at commodity prices in general, I believe that this has and will eventually help to support and/or continue to support AUD or CAD currencies. This situation will help Australia's import/export terms of trade index. IT is only a matter of time until the RBA must raise rates.
I think taking a small position in AUDUSD is ok here.
Technicals:
Horizontal Support
Volume support
I do not believe it will fly like a stock. But, I believe that it will bounce back up to major resistance in the medium-term; a quarter from now; maybe after the USD finishes is upward trajectory.
Taking a small risk here is ok with me.
Entered @ 0.7121
Stop@ 0.6965
Target@ 0.7590
Risk% = 0.50%
Reward-to-Risk Ratio = 3:1
Potential loss = $1000
Potential gain = $3000
Australia's exports are, mainly, iron ore, coal, petroleum gas, gold , and frozen bovine meat (4% and above total exports; especially iron ore and other ores (>20% of total exports). They also export inorganic materials, wheat and cereal, but this is less than 2% of total exports. Anything 4% and above is more significant. Australia's largest trade in exports with China, Japan, South Korea, United States, and India.
The USD has seen strength and will continue to see strength in the near-term as the yield spread continues to favor a strong dollar.
Drought in Argentina (informed by a close friend in Argentina)
"Drought in US soil as of April 19, 2022 46.35% of the US and 55.38% of the lower 48 states are in drought. Acres of crops in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions."
drought.gov/current-conditions
Demand from China has risen due to China's desire to urbanize its peasant farmers and the rest of their populace. Also, China's local producers have been severely impacted by China's zero covid policy. The country needs to import food as a result.
The EU will use biofuel as a replacement of gas from Russia.
Looking at this list and at commodity prices in general, I believe that this has and will eventually help to support and/or continue to support AUD or CAD currencies. This situation will help Australia's import/export terms of trade index. IT is only a matter of time until the RBA must raise rates.
I think taking a small position in AUDUSD is ok here.
Technicals:
Horizontal Support
Volume support
I do not believe it will fly like a stock. But, I believe that it will bounce back up to major resistance in the medium-term; a quarter from now; maybe after the USD finishes is upward trajectory.
Taking a small risk here is ok with me.
Entered @ 0.7121
Stop@ 0.6965
Target@ 0.7590
Risk% = 0.50%
Reward-to-Risk Ratio = 3:1
Potential loss = $1000
Potential gain = $3000
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Well... it did pop up very high, then fell. It did not last long. haha
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