AUDJPY short triggered

PBOC Reference Rate was big surprise.
Risk off mode engaged by the markets.

Looking for two TP's, the 1.618 and 2.618 extensions of the initial impulse down.

코멘트:

Finally, some movement in the right direction.
I was getting rather frustrated watching risk off sentiment being unable to push this down.
But upon after some analysis, I now see what the hold up has been, this Red zone of Fibs.

Close up of the fib zone that is of interest, in the last few hours of the week

And blowing it up vertically to look at the fibs in play.

Notice the various strong fib lines defining various boundaries.
And notice the precise reflections of the energy

That many precise pings now and in the past tells me those are very important fib lines.
Thus my relief that price has broken below the band finally.
Not a strong break, but that was LATE FRIDAY, so very little volume but enough I guess.

코멘트:

Monday open brought some more downward movement.
But now retesting Monthly Pivot.
NOT an impenetrable barrier so much as a take profit zone.
If enough shorts close, it might cause a relief rally.

코멘트:

AJ Fib multiples still valid.

코멘트:

Hoping to see this zone break soon (bounce looks weak so far),
and then some quick progress to the next zone or two down would be nice.

코멘트:

I have placed a tight SL on 50% of the position, just above current price

If it does trip, will look to put it back on after a measureable bounce. If not hit, great, will keep riding. This bounce is not looking strong at all, but it is not pushing down either :(

코멘트:

I think my SL is about to be hit.
Will book profit on 50% of position, move SL to BE on the rest.

코멘트:

Sure enough, SL hit, 50% closed, about 30 pips profit.
SL at BE on rest.

코멘트:

aaaand of course, it takes my SL and continues down :(
But that is why I dont go ALL IN or ALL OUT at any time.
Now waiting to see if breaks the support zone already established.

코멘트:

Looking at the Pivots:

Pivot theory says that if the price starts the week around the weekly Central in a bear trend, then price should reach somewhere between the weekly M2 and S2 pivots. That is a where a lot of traders will take profit. So I expect to ride this short until late in the week to see if I can reach that zone.

코멘트:

Next, I added the pivot zones to my Fib Zone plot.

Now I have an ''Idea'' target to look for, by end of week.

코멘트:

PBOC just devalued the Yuan some more.
That is what started this whole move.

Now there is added fuel. I think my ''Ideal target'' might be too conservative now. But will still be taking some profits along the way

코멘트:

Added a small short here