AUD/JPY looks set to bounce from OS levels

AUD/JPY fell nearly -4.5% since the MTD high to today’s low. And as AU employment has raised the takes for another RBA hike – even if only very slightly – we suspect further upside over the near term. Besides, assuming the MOF did intervene on the yen on Wednesday, it seems unlikely to be followed up with more action today. And that could allow the yen to drift lower and provide a slight tailwind for AUD/JPY.

The daily RSI (2) reached oversold on Wednesday. Today we have seen prices open above the April high, dip beneath it and back again. This could suggest we have already seen the daily low. The 4-hour RSI (14) is well within its oversold zone, and two very negative delta volumes (bids – asks) suggests some bears got greedy on the way down. Besides, volumes were also relatively thin in the recent leg lower looking at the volume profile, hence the bias for a corrective bounce towards 106.

Bulls could seek dips within the prior 4-hour bullish pinbar with a stop below.