ASML :1400$ TARGET

10월 9일

In this technical analysis, I am evaluating the price movement of ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ) using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Retracement to project potential future price trends. This approach helps us identify key price levels, offering a clearer view of where the stock may be headed in the coming months.

Purpose of the Analysis
The primary goal of this analysis is to highlight potential target levels and retracement zones. On the chart, two green squares indicate these areas:

The lower square represents the retracement target, which has already been reached. This zone was calculated using the Fibonacci retracement tool, which helps identify key reversal levels during price corrections.
The upper square marks the final target, projecting where the stock could move as the upward trend continues. After a brief retracement, the price is expected to rise toward this upper zone.
Elliott Wave Structure
The price movement is analyzed through Elliott Wave Theory, which divides market trends into:

A series of 5 waves, representing the primary upward movement.
A corrective ABC pattern, which signals a temporary retracement before the continuation of the main trend.
Trendlines and the Channel
The two black trendlines represent a price channel within which the stock has been moving. This channel defines the current boundaries for the upward price movement:

The lower trendline acts as a support level, preventing the price from falling further.
The upper trendline serves as resistance, capping the price’s rise.
As long as the price remains within this channel, we can expect it to continue its bullish trajectory. However, there is also the potential for the price to break out above the upper trendline, signaling even stronger upward momentum. A breakout would be a highly bullish signal, suggesting the stock could exceed the current projected target and enter a new phase of aggressive growth.

Future Outlook
After completing the retracement, the stock is likely to continue moving upward within the channel. If the price respects these trendlines, it should climb toward the upper target. A breakout above the upper trendline would signal a more powerful rally, possibly leading to even higher prices.